By TheChurch.Digital: Are our physical services effective? Typically, we measure butts in seats to get that number. Did more people come this week than last week? You’re heading in the right direction.

In most situations, butts in seats is a horrible analytic. That being said, it’s necessary… but there are others! What are we looking at? What stats should we be looking at and how do we measure them? This is where we bring in the experts. RESI has been helping stream church services for years, and they’ve gotten quite good at helping churches measure and process analytics!

So jump in the conversation with Collin Jones and Jennifer Miles from Resi, and let’s figure out how we should be measuring the analytics of our church services online.

If you’re enjoying this episode, subscribe for free using your favorite podcast app below:

Apple Podcasts | RSS Feed | Anchor | Overcast | Spotify | Pocket Casts | Google Play

ON THE SHOW

Source: PODCAST 137: Resi & Analytics of Online Church Services

The post PODCAST 137: Resi & Analytics of Online Church Services appeared first on Passion for Planting.

By Carey Nieuwhof: How’s your vision casting lately?

I noticed something recently that surprised and disappointed me: Without realizing it, a few months ago, I stopped casting vision for my team.

Which is really strange, because I’m a visionary, that’s what I do. And I’ve been leading with vision for decades.

But after one more meeting where my (amazing) team was in the weeds slugging out logistics for a new initiative we’re launching, it hit me: I haven’t cast vision for this initiative for months. As a result, we were bogged down in pedantic details that almost everyone finds frustrating.

I stopped the meeting, cast some vision, and then both personally with individual team members and later with our entire team, I apologized to them for not leading with a clear (and inspiring) vision.

Then I leaned back and asked myself “What the heck just happened? How did vision slip and I didn’t even notice it?”

Then I looked around and realized, I haven’t seen a ton of other leaders casting a lot of vision either. 

Having never led through a global pandemic/series of gigantic crises before, my conclusion is that crisis kills vision. Unless you decide it won’t.

In this post, I’ll explain how that happens and how to get it back.

Crisis kills vision, unless you decide it won’t.

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When Crisis Hits, Vision Dies and Survival and Adaptation Kick In

When crisis hits, almost every leader instinctively moves into survival mode. That’s natural and to a large extent, exactly what needs to happen.

When you have no idea what’s going to happen, you need to make sure you survive.

Part of survival is adaptation. You need to adapt to the new reality, and so you move from:

In-person services to online
Dine-in to take out
Pick up to delivery
In-person workouts to online sessions
Working in the office to working from home

If you’re reading this and still in leadership, you’ve done all that. It’s exhausting, but you made it. Congrats.

As the world opens up again, you adapt back, trying to figure out what the new reality will be and adapting to it.

Of course, that’s not the end of the road.

If you’re curious, I wrote more about the 5 kinds of leaders crisis produces here.

Whatever Happened to Innovation?

The stage after adaptation should be innovation. Innovation asks the question: What does this make possible?

And that’s what often starts to sputter at this stage of a crisis. A year in, you’ve made it. Maybe you’re even profitable or growing again, you’re adapting to whatever is next, so the incentive to change is lower.

Any success, by nature, makes you conservative. You risk less. It’s ‘working’, goes the logic, so why innovate?

Even in normal times, the more successful you are, the less willing you are to engage in the kind of risk that brings about breakthroughs.

And as a result, vision dies.

You’ve survived. You’ve adapted. You’re tweaking. But vision…is gone.

Success makes you conservative. The more successful you are, the less willing you are to engage in the kind of risk that brings about breakthroughs.

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5 Things That Aren’t Vision (And 5 Things That Are)

People tend to notice the presence of vision but not the absence of it.

As a result, you could lead well for years, build your organization on vision, then hit cruise control and it might takes months, or in some cases, years for anyone to notice, including you.

To make things clearer, here are 5 things that’s aren’t vision and how to get your vision back.

People tend to notice the presence of vision but not the absence of it.

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1. Bringing People Back

Right now, almost every leader I talk to is obsessing over bringing people back. Church leaders worry about the 20-30% that have disappeared, or getting back to where they were in 2019.

Business leaders are often worried about customer retention and loyalty.

Bringing people back isn’t vision. Moving people forward is.

Leaders who focus on moving people forward will have a much better future.

Bringing people back isn’t vision. Moving people forward is.

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2. Maintenance 

Depending on what you do (think in-person retail), the crisis may still have you scrambling to stay alive.

Scrambling is one thing, but in the long run, keeping the lights on the bank accounts in the black isn’t vision.

Maintenance isn’t vision. Your mission is vision.

Instead, start refocusing now on why you do what you do. Imagine you were starting over (which you kind of are). What’s your rallying cry? What’s the fire that burns in your belly?

Focus on that. Then tell everyone what it is and don’t stop.

Maintenance isn’t vision. Your mission is vision.

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3. Adaptation 

Adaptation isn’t vision either.

If you’ve adapted, awesome.

But the real questions are: What’s next? What’s new? What will 10x or 100x our potential?

What can we do now that will bring us disproportionate results?

In the long run, settling for adaptation will kill your innovation.

In the long run, settling for adaptation will kill your innovation.

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4. What and How 

In any meeting, there are really three questions that leaders continually deal with: what, how and why.

The best of these is why, and why is the first thing to die in a visionless organization.

That’s where I found myself in that recent meeting. I let us get bogged down in the what and how of our new initiative, which as a sole diet, is both demotivating and at times, exhausting.

WHY is the first thing to die in a visionless organization.

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If you’re swinging for the fences (which we are on this new initiative), what and how can be hard.

That’s where why comes in.

Why invigorates. Why motivates. It inspires.

Ask yourself: what’s your internal and external communication focused on? If it’s what and how, you’ve lost your vision, and perhaps your way.

Focusing on why motivates people to make a way when there is no way.

Now let’s take what and why one step further…

Focusing on why motivates people to make a way when there is no way.

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5. What You Want People To Do 

Finally, what you want people to do isn’t vision either.

Like you, I’ve heard an endless sea of retailers urge us to shop local (which I have). I’ve heard preacher after preacher say things like “Watch this” or “Don’t miss this.” Yep, I’m down for that too. And I’ve heard so many online retailers tell me to buy now. Occasionally, I do.

But the real question when it comes to vision isn’t what you want people to do.

The real task of the visionary is to focus on why it matters at all.

For a variety of reasons, it’s difficult to imagine what the world will be like in five years, or even two. Which is why why matters more now than ever.

People don’t need you to tell them what to do nearly as much as they need you to tell them why it matters.

So how do you cast vision when you can’t see ahead?

Well, imagine that Disney was vision casting for your organization.

If Disney created anything for you like this 2019 30-second commercial about a dad whose daughter is going to college, you’d have no problem inspiring people to do something without ever telling them to ‘get in here’ or ‘come back’ or ‘don’t miss this’.  (Parents, grab a tissue. You’ve been warned.)

Do you see how beautifully Disney crafted the why? Why it matters reminds you of what matters. Why shows you what’s at stake, and what you miss if you don’t get in on it.

Because of all the uncertainty crisis brings,  you may not know exactly what your organization will be doing in a year or two, but as a visionary, you do know why you’ll be doing it.

What’s underneath your what? Why does it matter? What value does it add to the people you’re serving?

Focus on that. Remind people of why you do what you do, and you’ll likely have a long future doing it.

That’s vision.

Remind people of why you do what you do, and you’ll likely have a long future doing it.

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What’s Happening With Your Vision?

How has the crisis been on your vision? What’s killing it (if that’s the case) and what’s helping you get it back?

Scroll down and leave a comment.

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3 Habits That Unintentionally Demotivate Staffu2026n And How Your Can Quickly Reverse Themnn

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Ever notice how hard it is to have your staff and volunteers consistently performing at their best?n

It can be a burden knowing that what you do as a leader directly impacts the motivation and performance of your team. And, good or bad, itu2019s not always easy to identify the which habits do.n

Throughout my years in leadership Iu2019ve noticed 3 habits many leaders have that consistently demotivate staff. n

Access my free teaching video to find out what they are and how you can quickly reverse them to get your team members performing at their best. n

Access the free teaching video now!n

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3 Habits That Unintentionally Demotivate Staffu2026n And How Your Can Quickly Reverse Themnn

n

Ever notice how hard it is to have your staff and volunteers consistently performing at their best?n

It can be a burden knowing that what you do as a leader directly impacts the motivation and performance of your team. And, good or bad, itu2019s not always easy to identify the which habits do.n

Throughout my years in leadership Iu2019ve noticed 3 habits many leaders have that consistently demotivate staff. n

Access my free teaching video to find out what they are and how you can quickly reverse them to get your team members performing at their best. n

Access the free teaching video now!n

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The post How the Crisis Probably Killed Your Vision (And How To Get It Back) appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: How the Crisis Probably Killed Your Vision (And How To Get It Back)

The post How the Crisis Probably Killed Your Vision (And How To Get It Back) appeared first on Passion for Planting.

By Carey Nieuwhof: So it’s been a year now since pretty much every church got online courtesy of the pandemic.

As the world moves slowly but surely into the post-pandemic era, there are a lot of questions about what will happen to future in-person church.

The return to church has been anything but easy for churches that are reopened, and hard even for churches that are located in areas that are almost wide open.

A Lifeway Research survey shows that in January 2021,

31% of churches are still reporting less than 50% of their January 2020 attendance

37% are hovering between 50%-70% and 30% are between 70%-100%

Only 2% report seeing more than 100% of their attendance a year ago.

It’s easy to imagine that all of this is going to reverse the moment society is ‘open’ again, but for a number of reasons that’s unlikely.

First, the reopening of society is by every account going to be gradual and staged.

Second, even when laws allow everything to be wide open (as in Texas), people often behave differently than the law allows them. While some people will run into the future unrestrained and with no limits, others will remain cautious for a while to come.

But even that doesn’t explain what’s about to happen next.

Perhaps the deepest threat to in-person attendance comes from a cultural possibility I’ll say more about below, that we might be entering into a relatively selfish me-centered behavior that might relegate churches even further to the sidelines than they were pre-pandemic. And yes, I know, we were already a selfish culture.

I’m not saying this is good. I am saying for the reasons below, it may be true.

Which leads us to the false debate.

The False Debate Part 1: Think About Online Dating

So what’s the false debate?

Well, search the comments on this site or almost any other church-related social feed and you’ll see many leaders arguing that people don’t want to just do church online.

Those who say that are in part wrong, and in part correct.

It’s nuanced. Let me explain.

The same surveys that show in-person attendance is likely to struggle in the future also show that only a sliver of the population wants to only access church online.

That makes sense.

Think about online dating. About 40% of couples who date these days meet online via a dating app or site.  Not shocking.

But couples who meet online don’t stay online. You’ve never met a couple who said “We’ve been married for six years but we’ve never met in person…”

No, both dating and church online lead to in-real life.

So those who say church online can’t meet the needs of people long term are largely correct. We’re built for human connection.

So you would think, then, that the return to church would be automatic.

That’s where it breaks down.

Couples who meet online don’t stay online. You’ve never met a couple who said We’ve been married for six years but we’ve never met in person… No, both dating and church online lead to in-real life.

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The False Debate Part 2: In-Building v. In-Person

It’s true that real ministry happens best in-person. Theologically, relationally and experientially, people need people. The church is a community…in-person community.

But here’s the flawed assumption:  in-person ministry shouldn’t be restricted to in-building ministry.

To date, too many church leaders have assumed that the only viable option for in-person gathering happens in a building owned (or leased) by the church.

If you define in-person ministry as experiences that have to happen in a building owned by the church, you set yourself up for diminished mission.

In fact, if the size of your vision shrinks to the size of a room you can fill, you’ve missed the church’s mission.

If the size of your vision shrinks to the size of a room you can fill, you’ve missed the church’s mission.

Click to Tweet

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Sure, there will always be people who gather in a central facility.

It was done that way for years because it was a highly practical, sensible option. Historically, you’ve needed a building so you can assemble at the same time in the same place for a common experience. For centuries, a building was a sensible way to deliver that. It was hard to gather dozens or hundreds of people for a service.

Then the internet happened.

Moving into the post-pandemic era, churches can now gather people in person in a wide variety of ways: micro-gatherings, micro-campuses, home gatherings…all uniting the distributed in-person gatherings through technology.

In my post on 2021 Disruptive Church Trends, many of the trends deal directly with this dynamic and you can learn more there  (there’s also a free PDF Team Application Guide you can use as well).

In the future, don’t limit your understanding of in-person gatherings to in-facility gatherings; the majority of attenders and perhaps your most engaged people may not be in the auditorium.

If you expand your definition of gathering, it’s much easier to genuinely expand your mission.

If you expand your definition of gathering, it’s much easier to genuinely expand your mission.

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To drill down further on why this is so crucial, consider these three things.

1. The Culture Has Become More Post-Modern

Crisis is an accelerator, and as Barna has shown, 1 in 5 church-going adults stopped attending church altogether in 2020.

I’m guessing America and many part of the West became even more post-modern and post-Christian in the last year. Trends that may have taken a decade to cement got accelerated as people were decoupled from their habits.

Among the many characteristics of post-Christian, post-modern spirituality, three stand out when it comes to future attendance trends. Post-modern spirituality is:

self-directed
anti-institutional; and
selective

In other words, people will pick and choose what they want to do. That goes from choosing a favorite preacher to listen to, to deciding to watch from home or on the go, and even (you’ve already seen this) tenets of the faith they are inclined to embrace and tenets they’re inclined not to.

I am not arguing this is good. I’m just saying, as a Canadian who’s ministered in a post-Christian culture for decades, it’s very real.

None of this doesn’t mean it’s over for the church. Far from it. In fact, there’s more opportunity for authentic Christianity than ever.

But if you’re relying on old methods to renew your mission, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.

Churches that are ready to change their methods in the post-pandemic era will seize incredible opportunities to advance their mission.

And churches that won’t may (as we’ve said here a few times) end up being like malls in the age of Amazon, just waiting  for people to return.

If you change, you’ll advance your mission. And if you don’t, you likely won’t.

If you want more on this, here are five characteristics of churches that will be in decline five years from now.

Churches that are ready to change their methods in the post-pandemic era will seize incredible opportunities to advance their mission.

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2. There May Be A Coiled-Spring of Self-Centered Behavior Ahead Of Us

We were already living a pretty self-centered life as a culture before COVID. As the HBO documentary Fake Famous so clearly points out, we’re really into ourselves and self-gratification.

I wonder if we’re heading into an even more self-centered few years ahead of us as people try to make up for whatever they missed in the last year and a bit: vacations, freedom, time away, and whatever else disappeared from their life.

One leader who leads a church in a pretty much fully open US state told me last week that the 20-30% of people who are not coming back to his re-opened church are still going to theaters, restaurants and other events. But for some reason, they’re just skipping church because “they’re not ready.”

My question was, are they just not ready or just too polite to say they’re no longer interested? Maybe there are many other intriguing things to do with their time…

There is a lot of pent up angst and longing in all of us.

And so much of the pandemic so far as been baffling. The economic and health impact of the pandemic have been so uneven and in many cases, unjust.

Despite the massive disruption, layoffs and decimated industries and cities, housing prices and the stock market have soared. People have been spending on home upgrades, bikes, boats, Peletons and many other things.  Despite all the spending, in North America personal savings rates are at all-time highs.

If you look at history, rather than dealing with the inequities and problems we face, often after a period of deep pain, people often engage in escapism and pursue fun.

The Roaring 20s followed the First World War and Spanish flu. Jazz music, movie theaters, the automobile, flappers, and night clubs gave dominated the Great Gatsby era.

The 50s baby boom, suburban explosion, and prosperity followed the horrors of the Second World War and Great Depression.

Is something like that around the corner for us? It’s too early to tell, but it’s not too early to start preparing.

Doing the authentic work of the church, being active in the local communities that don’t have the economic freedom to escape and being online to mobilize people around the mission matter even more.

If the 2020s end up being like the 1920s, the church needs a better strategy than louder music, more haze and “don’t miss this series.”

If the 2020s end up being like the 1920s, the church needs a better strategy than louder music, more haze and don’t miss this series.

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The culture needs an alternative to itself, not an echo of itself.

You can’t reach a secular culture by being more secular. You can reach it by becoming more authentic.

So be more authentic.

You can’t reach a secular culture by being more secular. You can reach it by becoming more authentic.

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3. Hybrid Church Will Simply Match Reality: Life Is Already a SlipStream Between Digital and In Real Life

None of this is really new.

For years now before COVID, almost every human was living in a slipstream between digital and in-real-life interactions.

You text your friend one second, pivot to a YouTube video the next to get a recipe for dinner, and then meet your family in the kitchen to cut some vegetables for the meal.

For years now, you’ve moved seamlessly between the digital and the real.

Church will be that way in the future too, which is why the hybrid church—offering both digital and physical ministry—is here to stay.

People will be in the building one week, watching solo online the next, and the third gathering with some friends in a home or (better yet) serving in the community to be the church.

Standing in a building resenting everyone who didn’t show up is no way to reach people. So don’t be that leader.

Standing in a building resenting everyone who didn’t show up is no way to reach people. So don’t be that leader.

Click to Tweet

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And if we are moving into some years where people are heading off to the woods, the mountains, the ocean, tropical islands or their back yard, digital will help you stay connected with them and call them back to a deeper level of sacrifice and commitment to others.

If you really do believe that the essence of Christianity is to be the church, not just go to church, then embracing a hybrid model of church only makes sense.

On the other hand, if you’re limit your digital investment in the hope you can fill a room, that’s a whole other, likely much harder, conversation.

If you really do believe that the essence of Christianity is to be the church, not just go to church, then embracing a hybrid model of church only makes sense.

Click to Tweet

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A Few Other Thoughts

Before we get to the comments (I would love to know what you think), a few other thoughts.

Having a robust in-person and digital ministry is going to be hard. And no one has really figured the model out yet.

But start here: resource your online presence with the same intensity and resources that you would if you were launching a physical location.

The surprise of course, is that effective digital ministry is much cheaper than launching a physical location, but still. Staff it like you mean it.

Staffing, of course, also involves volunteers.

And because no one has cracked the code yet on micro-gatherings, being a distributed church, or even figuring out what the format online versus for live services will be in the future, feel free to experiment (Mark Clark and I discuss some possibilities here).

Take some pressure off yourself and try some things. Some will connect, some won’t. That’s what innovation is all about.

When it comes to ministry that happens in the facility moving forward, its highest value will likely be for young families who want in-person connection for their kids, student ministry where gathering in person is of high value, people who prefer church in a facility, and of course, new people. You have a whole host of people who are now part of your church online but have never seen or experienced your church in person.

This may likely be the new core of regular attenders for the next few years. I could be wrong, but it seems plausible.

Finally, remember that being the local church is a great thing. 85% of you reading this lead a church of 200 attenders or less. Let that encourage you.

Preachers whose messages are viewed hundreds of thousands of times (sometimes by your people) don’t know your people or your city. But you do.

Along with your team, love them, serve them, reach them.

Nobody should be able to out-local the local church.

Nobody should be able to out-local the local church.

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How Are You Planning?

What are you expecting as you move into the future, and how are you planning for it?

Scroll down and leave a comment!

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By Carey Nieuwhof: So, any idea whether your church or business grow after the pandemic?

Will things spring back to pre-COVID levels? Or will you struggle for years to come?

With so much still up in the air, you might think that question is unanswerable.

Well, yes and no.

To be fair, nobody knows exactly how it will go. We could be for a much longer haul than anyone wants. Not to mention the likely instability of the post-pandemic era ahead.

But the question is answerable at much deeper level, because the difference in attitude between leaders who flourish and leaders who flounder predict the future in a surprisingly accurate way.

One of my favorite leadership books is Jim Collins’ How the Mighty Fall,  written after the Great Recession about formerly iconic companies that ended up failing. (Here’s a more complete list of my top leadership book recommendations.)

With the global crisis causing most of us to entertain thoughts and strategies we’ve never embraced before, I find Collins’ insights as compelling today as they were a dozen years ago. Collins’ observations are based on extensive research. Hence, the accuracy.

The principles I’m sharing in this post are taken from Collins’ book and  they serve as both a solid predictor and warning about the kind of organizations and leaders who will thrive in the post-pandemic world and those who won’t.

Quick side note: I first heard about the book when it first came out in 2009 from a mentor who asked me whether I could possibly be setting myself up for failure based on Collin’s insight.

Those are never fun questions to hear…but my friend was right. His correction saved me and the people I was leading a hundred heartbreaks and possible failure.

Yes, the insights are a bit of a gut-punch, but the kind of gut-punch, as I discovered, that ultimately helps.

So with that in mind, here are five signs you’ll flounder, not flourish after the pandemic.

The difference in attitude between leaders who flourish and leaders who flounder predict the future in a surprisingly accurate way.

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1. You’re Pretty Certain Everything Will Spring Back To Past Levels Because the Rules Don’t Apply to You

Collin’s first sign of failure is something he calls ‘the hubris of success’.

Maybe you were highly successful before COVID. Or, even if you wouldn’t call yourself highly successful, you had a system figured out that kept everything running just fine. Good enough, in other words.

Collins says that’s exactly the trap successful leaders fall into.

Hubris will get you believing your success is deserved rather than something that was fortuitous, fleeting, grace or happened against the odds.

As a result, you’ve stopped learning and growing because you’ve got this figured out and people come to you for answers…so, of course things will snap back in your favor.

Sure, you’ve read that 1 in 5 church-going adults left the church in 2020, but you think your current numbers are solid enough and your number are higher than your friends’ or peers’ numbers. So you’re good.

The rules don’t apply to you, you tell yourself.

And of course, the rules never apply to you until they do.

Pride born of past success is the first sign you won’t see success in the future.

Pride born of past success is the first sign you won’t see success in the future.

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2. You’re Obsessed With Growth

Collins calls the second marker you’re heading for a fall “the undisciplined pursuit of more.” It surfs off the entitlement mentality that the hubris of success brings, and leaders who fall prey to this get hyper-focused on growth.

Collins highlights one pharmaceutical company whose CEO said publicly that they were totally focused on growth as their #1 business objective—not on product breakthroughs, drug development, scientific excellence, not R&D or even increasing productivity.

Growth, Collins points out, is usually a by-product of other things.

It’s not that growth is a bad thing. The problems is the undisciplined pursuit of more. More for more’s sake is the issue, or as Collins puts it, addiction to scale is the problem.

When growth is undisciplined, leaders become ready to sacrifice principles, people and integrity to grow.

You’ll reopen to satisfy your ego and thirst for growth rather than do what’s right (I outlined the idiot’s guide to reopening here).

Look, this one hits me hard personally. I love it when things growth. I hate it when things stagnate or decline.

But I’ve already realized that my desire to grow at all costs ultimately sets everyone up to fail. That by focusing on the fundamentals (these days for me, it’s helping people thrive in life and leadership), far more can be accomplished over the long haul than by simply finding growth hacks that will bring temporary wins.

Here’s the irony: Leaders who are obsessed with growth often face futures filled with decline.

Leaders who are obsessed with growth often face futures filled with decline.

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3. You’re Amplifying The Positive and Discounting the Negative

Look, we’re all trying to stay encouraged. I posted about things to be genuinely encouraged about here.

But here’s the challenge: you can’t motivate your way out of a crisis like this. As hard as it is, you have to lead your way through it.

You can’t motivate your way out of a crisis like this. As hard as it is, you have to lead your way through it.

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Collins calls Stage 3 of how the mighty fall “denial of risk and peril.”

In this stage, leaders amplify the positive and discount the negative—you discount or explain away the negative data rather than presume something is wrong with your organization or leadership.

In other words, leaders highlight and amplify external praise and publicly, pointing out the positive and eliminating the negative.

Truth-tellers get dismissed or punished in this stage and team debate grinds to a halt. The leader only allows opinions he or she likes to come forward.

Finally, almost all the factors associated with the challenges get blamed on external forces or other people.

It’s not us, it’s the pandemic.

The real challenge is the economy…

The statistics lie…that’s not what’s happening

Look, as soon as government lifts the lockdowns everything gets solved

If you want to know what discounting the negative looks like in real life, scroll through the comments on this post. This stage is rampant in a lot of churches and organizations right now.

Leaders who can’t handle the truth get angry…and that’s not healthy for anyone.

If you amplify the positive and discount the negative, you’re likely to run into far more negative in the future.

If you amplify the positive and discount the negative, you’re likely to run into far more negative in the future.

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4. You Think You’ve Discovered A Silver Bullet

As the slide down into failure accelerates, meany leaders find themselves grasping for salvation.

In this stage you find yourself announcing that you’ve discovered a silver bullet solution that will change everything. Or if you haven’t found a silver bullet, you’re searching for one, and trust me, that will turn everything around.

Collins points out that when things start to slide in organizations, leaders grasp at straws, making big dramatic moves that they claim will be game changing or truly innovative.

Another tell tale sign is the hype around the silver bullet or new strategy…hype that isn’t predicated on results but instead precedes results.

Think of “this is going to change everything” or “we’ve totally got this figured out” kind of language, before you’ve really done anything.

This is a particular trap for visionary leaders. Just because you think one thing will change everything doesn’t mean it will.

Just because you think one thing will change everything doesn’t mean it will.

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You might push back and say well isn’t game changing innovation required?

Absolutely.

But real innovation is usually more nuanced, deliberate and comprehensive than the grasping-at-straws desperation you get to when you desire growth at any cost but your strategy doesn’t match.

One additional sign that you’re falling prey to this trap is that as soon as your silver bullet doesn’t work, you grow angry, cynical and start flailing in a new (even opposite) direction out of panic a desperation.

What the team needs in a time like this is calm, deliberate action that moves toward a new direction.

5. You’re Capitulating to Irrelevance or Death

A year into the global crisis, some leaders already find themselves at this stage: capitulation to irrelevance or death.

Maybe you haven’t said anything out loud, but you kind of sense in your spirit that it’s over. That it will never be the same. Or that you don’t have the skills to take things into the future.

Collins makes the argument that it’s very difficult (if not impossible) to move yourself out of this stage.

I’ve you think it’s over, it probably is. After all, the vision of the leader determines the vision of the team.

I’ve you think it’s over, it probably is. After all, the vision of the leader determines the vision of the team.

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I agree with Collins (and Les McKeown, who argues a similar point), that this is a very difficult stage to pull out of, but perhaps it’s not impossible.

The remedy, is to go back through points 1-4 and reverse the action.

Stop assuming things will bounce back, or that the rules don’t apply to you, and humbly work with the entire team to develop a new strategy.

Get over your insecurity and obsession with growth and focus on the fundamentals that bring growth.

Welcome truth tellers and embrace the reality that without deep and systemic change, it may not go well.

Stop looking for silver bullets and embrace calm, deliberate action that moves toward a new direction.

If you find that difficult (and it is difficult), as yourself this simple question: five years from now, what will you wish you had done?

Now go do it.

As you know, innovation (real innovation at least) beats capitulation.

Innovation beats capitulation.

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Any Insights?

As I indicated, this post is a bit of a gut-punch. But over a decade ago, it was exactly the gut punch I needed and I’ve occasionally needed since.

Embrace hard truths like these pave the way to a much better future.

I encourage you to read Collin’s book as it gives a much more detailed insight than this 1500 word post does, but I hope this helps.

Curious—any other signs you see that might indicated struggle or decline is ahead in the post-pandemic world?

I’d love to hear your insights in the comments below.

The post A Surprisingly Accurate Way to See If Your Church or Organization Will Flounder After the Pandemic appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

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By Carey Nieuwhof: Just when you thought the world couldn’t get any more turbulent or surprising, the opening moments of 2021 still have everyone trying to catch their breath.

So what are the leadership trends you should be tracking in 2021?

For years I’ve done a series of church trends posts. You can read the 2021 Disruptive Church Trends post here (along with backlinks to the trends series over the last five years). While those trends are aimed at church leaders, the implications are broader than that.

Last year, I added a more general Leadership Trends post, focusing on a broader swath of issues facing all leaders, business, entrepreneurs, non-profit, professional—essentially all of us who lead.

5 Disruptive Leadership Trends That Will Rule 2020

Despite the insanity that became 2020, those trends outlined in January of 2020 continue to play out right into today.

Which leads us to 2021.

In all likelihood, this year will take us into the post-pandemic world. It won’t be the light switch you hope for (and suddenly, we’re all back!). Instead, it will be a gradual emergence into whatever our normalized future looks like. But at some point in 2021 you’ll look back and realize most of the pandemic is behind you and the future is ahead of you.

The question is, what kind of new reality will emerge? What should you expect as a leader?

So, in the hopes of helping every leader lead more effectively, here are seven disruptive trends every leader needs to watch in 2021.

1. Super-High Turnover (Far More People Than Usual Will Quit, Move and Leave)

As hard as this is to hear, every leader should brace themselves for higher than usual turnover in the next twelve months.

In 2021, far more people—staff, volunteers, team members, and tribe—will quit, move and leave than typical. There’s a lot of lag in the system, and more options than ever as the world reopens.

This is a short term trend, but a real one. Some of the turnover will be natural and healthy. Some of it won’t be.

In 2021, far more people—staff, volunteers, team members, and tribe—will quit, move and leave than typical. There’s a lot of lag in the system, and more options than ever as the world reopens.

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I discussed this trend with the CEO of a staffing search firm who said that some of it is due to a storm surge in the system. Very few people moved or quit in 2020 given what was going on. (If you want more, check out Episode 382 of my Leadership Podcast with William Vanderbloemen.)

As the post-pandemic world emerges, many employees will rethink their future—from what they want to do,  what they want their life to look like and where they want to live (witness the exit from NYC, California and other major cities/states).

In addition, in light of the stress levels, many leaders who were contemplating retirement or succession may end up accelerating the time line.

The point in all this is both to nurture your current team (especially your top people) and to prepare.

If you value your team, now’s the time to let them know and the time to show them you’d love to keep them.

Also, be sure to read to Trend  5. In 2021, the good news for employers and employees is that changing cities doesn’t have to involve changing jobs.

In 2021, the good news for employers and employees is that changing cities doesn’t have to involve changing jobs.

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2. Nothing and No One Will Quite Go Back to Normal

They say it takes 21 days (or 66 days, depending on who you read) to form a habit.

The pandemic will easily pass 365 days before its resolved. That means a lot of new habits have been formed.

Think about how much your patterns have shifted in the last year. From work, to schooling, to shopping and eating habits, to travel and vacationing, to how you entertain yourself and your family, to your work out routine—so much has shifted.

Personally, as a public speaker who was flying over 100,000 miles a year leading into the pandemic, I’ve decided not to be on the road as much in the future.  It’s better for me, my company and the people I love.

Multiply the new and shifted habits by millions of people and you’ll quickly realize that normal has changed a lot in the last year.

That said, many leaders are still counting on things ‘going back to normal’ in the post-pandemic era and they’ve aligned their strategy around it.

Going back to normal only works if normal still exists. And leaders, normal as you knew it, appears to have died.

Going back to normal only works if normal still exists. And leaders, normal as you knew it appears to have died.

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That’s because crisis is an accelerator.

Trends that might have taken years to materialize have embedded themselves more permanently in the last year (like, for example, the remote work, take out, delivery and drive-thru in the food industry, or the much deeper adoption of online shopping).

As much as you may wish that weren’t true (depending on your industry), ignoring it, arguing against it, pretending it’s not happening and arguing it shouldn’t be the case will not reverse it.

For sure, there will be some snap back (I’d love to go to a concert too and sit on a beach somewhere warm).

The world we left in 2019 has morphed into something new and different in 2021 and beyond.

Denial is not a strategy (or at least not a very good one).

The world we left in 2019 has morphed into something new and different in 2021 and beyond. Denial is not a strategy (or at least not a very good one).

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3. Loyalties Will Shift…Significantly

When everything’s changing, people change.

As a result, when culture moves into the post-pandemic era and the dust settles enough to see clearly, leaders will realize people’s loyalties have shifted— in some cases, dramatically.

In light of Trend #2, the question the becomes how many of your existing clients, customers or congregation will still be with you in the post-pandemic era?

For most leaders, it’s been almost impossible to track who your customers are, who you’ve gained and who you’ve lost.

You see overall numbers, but knowing exactly who those people are can be challenging.

When things normalize, you’ll get a much clearer picture or who has left, who’s still here and who you’ve picked up.

When everything’s changing, people change. As a result, when culture moves into the post-pandemic era and the dust settles enough to see clearly, leaders will realize people’s loyalties have shifted— in some cases, dramatically.

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It’s obvious that if you’ve grown, you have new people on board in 2021. But even if the last year has been a flat or declining year for you, there will in all likelihood be people who came for the first time who are now part of what you’re doing.

Naturally, you may want to focus on who you’ve lost and try to bring them back. That’s worth a bit of time and energy.  But it’s important to remember, they left for a reason…and multiple attempts on your part might feel desperate and end up being futile.

It’s probably wiser to focus the majority of your time, energy and resources nurturing the people you’ve kept and the people you’ve picked up.

People who are on mission with you will create a better future that people people who are off-mission or have left the mission.

People who are on mission with you will create a better future that people people who are off-mission or have left the mission.

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4. Home Will Emerge As The New Hub

As much as people are longing to get out of their homes and back into culture, the home will never be quite what it was before COVID.

In 2021 and beyond, home will emerge as the new hub.

Since the crisis began, home became the new hub for six things that more usually happened outside the home: fitness, schooling, work, shopping, entertainment and church.

Some of that will snap back, but not all of it.

In 2021 and beyond, home will emerge as the new hub.

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The world we left in 2019 was still a ‘come to us’ world: Amazon was making major inroads and malls were already struggling (as were churches, theatres and other sectors).

Many people have already reconfigured their homes from fitness, offices, entertainment and (when it’s okay again) better hospitality (so many people have rediscovered or discovered cooking).

In the post-pandemic world, leaders who are waiting for people to come to them will realize it’s much smarter to go to people instead.

And if your organization is designed to have people come to you (live events, restaurants, gyms, theatres, churches) you will likely need better experiences to lure people away from their redesigned homes and new habits.

In the post-pandemic world, leaders who are waiting for people to come to them will realize it’s much smarter to go to people instead.

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5. Remote Work Will Move from An Emergency or Luxury to A Necessity

Remote work has been accelerated at a rapid pace.

Some predictions are that in 2021, the number of people working permanently from home will double over even 2020 levels.

As DropBox explains here, most companies are never going back to how it was. That’s even more true in the for-profit world than in the non-profit world.

Long before COVID,  many employers were already frustrated with (youngish) team members who want to work from home, from coffee shops and have flex hours.

Now, many workers have discovered they love working from home and will insist on it moving into the future.

If you want to attract and keep highly talented team members, remote work options have become a necessity, not just an emergency measure or a luxury.

The future workplace is a flexible workplace, at least if you want to compete.

Having led a virtual team for years, I agree it can be challenging but it’s immensely rewarding, far more rewarding in fact than it is challenging.

If you want more, here are my top 7 practices for leading a digital team. I also offer an online course on how to coach top performance from your team remote or hybrid team here.

The future workplace is a flexible workplace, at least if you want to compete.

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 6. Instability Combined With Rapid Change Will Require Even More Agility 

2021 will also bring two things no leader is hoping for: instability coupled with rapid change.

The externally imposed rapid changed in 2020 caused by the pandemic and global shut down will be replaced by the rapid change demanded by to a newly reopened and different world.

And as much as you won’t likely see the same level of cataclysmic change you saw in 2020, the future will likely be both volatile and unstable.

The combination of prolonged instability and rapid change will create new leadership challenges in 2021.

The combination of prolonged instability and rapid change will create new leadership challenges in 2021.

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Agile leadership will help you tackle that challenge exceptionally well.

Agile leadership is flexible leadership, the ability to pivot and change not just once, but as often as changing conditions warrant.

In a crisis, agility is ability. Flexibility is a superpower.

In a crisis, agility is ability. Flexibility is a superpower.

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7.  A Sustainable Pace (For Everyone) Will Become Non-Negotiable

I know. The last year and the challenges ahead are exhausting.

Leading through a crisis is one thing. Leading through a prolonged crisis is another.

Even in the post-pandemic world, things will be far from stable or predictable for a while to come.

So how will you and your team make it through all that’s ahead?

In 2020, many leaders naturally looked to time off to heal them: a week in the summer, a year-end break, time at the beach.

All that is great, except you know what exactly happens when you return: you’re exhausted by 11 a.m. and silently weeping at your desk by 4.

The vacation solved nothing.

Here’s why that happens: time off won’t heal you when the problem is how you spend time on. When every day grinds you into the dust with long hours and extra effort, you may not even make it to your next vacation.

Time off won’t heal you when the problem is how you spend time on.

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The cure for an unsustainable pace is to create a sustainable pace.

For me, that means mastering the art of saying no, clearing my calendar, deciding to quit doing the things that aren’t working and building in margin to the every day.

If you think you can’t afford to do that, you’re wrong. You can’t afford not to do that.

Having burned out years ago, I know the pain burnout causes. Since then, I’ve not only developed a very sustainable pace (it works even in crisis), I’ve also trained thousands of leaders on how to find their ideal pace.

So here’s to deepening your personal reserves.

If you have deep reserves, tackling everything else in this post becomes not just easier, but doable.

The cure for an unsustainable pace is to create a sustainable pace.

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What Do You See? 

What trends are you seeing for 2021?

Scroll down and leave a comment!

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By Carey Nieuwhof: Having been through a year like no other, what can you expect as a church leader in 2021?

In all likelihood, this year will lead the church into the post-pandemic world. It won’t be the light switch you hope for (and suddenly, we’re all back!). Instead, it will be a gradual emergence into whatever our normalized future looks like. But at some point in 2021 you’ll look back and realize most of the pandemic is behind you and the future is ahead of you.

The question is, what kind of new reality will emerge?

For church leaders, it will be a different world for sure.

Since 2016, I’ve done an annual church trends post. For the most part, many of the trends have emerged and are still relevant to what we’re all experiencing right now. Some accelerated dramatically.

You can access the entire archive for free here:

The Original 2020 is History: 7 NEW Disruptive Church Trends Every Leader Should Watch

5 Disruptive Leadership Trends That Will Rule 2020

6 Disruptive Church Trends for 2020

5 Disruptive Church Trends for 2019

7 Disruptive Church Trends for 2018

6 Disruptive Church Trends for 2017

5 Disruptive Church Trends for 2016

While no one can say exactly what the future holds, here are 8 trends I’m watching and would encourage you and your team to consider and process as well.

2021 will lead the church into the post-pandemic world. It won’t be the light switch you hope for (and suddenly, we’re all back!). Instead, it will be a gradual emergence into whatever our normalized future looks like.

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1. The Majority of Attenders May No Longer Be In The Room

Physical church attendance has been in decline for decades and COVID in all likelihood accelerated the decline even further.

The average church has seen their re-opened attendance come in around 36% of previous levels. Almost no leader I’ve interviewed expects church attendance to jump back to pre-COVID levels for a while.

For years, most pastors didn’t know how to handle anyone who engaged the message or mission outside of their facility.

Moving forward, many church leaders will realize that people who are engaging from home or other places will count just as much as those who are attending in a facility.

Moving forward church leaders will realize that people who are engaging from home or other places will count just as much as those who are attending in a facility.

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Over the last year, so many things have shifted home: work, shopping, food, fitness, school and (at least for a season) church.

People have realized they don’t have to go to a building to engage. And as a result, some won’t do that nearly as much in the future.

As 2021 rolls on, many growing churches will see what you off-facility attendance (home partipation, micro-gatherings and distributed gatherings) eclipse facility-based attendance: the number of people participating in the mission who are not in the building on a Sunday will surpass the number of people participating in the mission inside the building.

More and more growing churches will embrace online viewing from home, micro-gatherings and micro-campuses as normal.

What pastors have to understand quickly is that this trend isn’t about people who are dropping out. It’s about people who are leaning in.

In the future, the number of people participating in the mission who are not in the building on a Sunday will surpass the number of people participating in the mission inside the building.

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If you can be good with the fact that micro-gatherings, distributed gatherings and people watching from home count, then you can mobilize those people in the same way you would people who are in your building.

In the same way retailers have come to understand that an online purchaser is still a client, and restaurant owners have embraced the fact that drive-thru, take out and delivery can still be fulfill their mission around food, so church leaders have to get good with the fact that people who aren’t in the main room count.

Your church is still around. The church is still around. It’s just left the building.

In the post-pandemic church, it’s possible that the majority of attenders as well as your most engaged people may not be in the room.

Your church is still around. The church is still around. It’s just left the building. In the post-pandemic church, your most engaged people may not be in the room.

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2. Growing Churches Will Shift Their Focus From Gathering to Connecting

This leads us to the second trend. Historically, the church has wagered almost everything on gathering people in a building.

This year, however, growing churches will focus less on gathering and much more on connecting. (Thanks to Tony Morgan for this language.)

Connecting people who are engaging from home both with the church and with one another will become and essential skill for all church leaders.

In 2021, if coming to Christ means coming to your church in a set location and a set hour, you need a new strategy.

In 2021, if coming to Christ means coming to your church in a set location and a set hour, you need a new strategy. Growing churches will focus less on gathering and much more on connecting

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The easiest way to think about this is the same way church leaders have thought about small groups for the last 25 years.

Almost no church leader today feels threatened by the idea that hundreds or thousands of people will be meeting in their homes to connect with other people. The church facilitates groups but doesn’t host them in a centralized facility.

Instead, leaders simply connect people who want to be connected and engage them in the mission.

This is where the potential for Sunday morning starts to move it to the new direction.

Small groups by nature tend to be closed and intimate. Gathering in people’ homes and outside the building on Sunday morning (or off-Sunday) would consist of micro-churches that are outward focused. Think of groups, but with an evangelism thrust.

The good news is that the scales in a way that gathered worship doesn’t period. It costs less and produces for more.

Gathering people on Sunday mornings will be as important as ever. It just won’t all happen in a building owned by the church.

Gathering people on Sunday mornings will be as important as ever. It just won’t all happen in a building owned by the church.

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3. Some Pastors Will Try to Fill Auditoriums While Others Focus On Fulfilling The Mission

The first two trends are disorienting and it’s easy to see why they would seem discouraging to many leaders. It’s a whole new paradigm the church is emerging into.

Just search the comments on this blog or social media and you’ll see church leaders who are having a really hard time coming to terms with what’s happening. I get it—it’s hard.

As a result, the natural tendency will be to ignore Trends 1 and 2 and focus on filling up auditoriums again once everything is fully open.

That might create a short term win but result in a longer term loss and missed opportunity. After all, for most leaders filling rooms was getting harder long before the pandemic.

So what’s underneath the obsession about filling auditoriums?

Often arguments include things like “Christians can’t forsake getting together” or “we have to gather in community.” That’s deeply true.

What’s not true (or biblical) is that the gathering has to happen in a building owned by the church (see the first two trends).

As someone who’s led a church for two decades, I promise you I like full rooms too. A little too much to be honest.

As much as they make for great pics on Instagram and make you feel better about yourself, full rooms do not guarantee a fulfilled mission.

Full auditoriums do not guarantee a fulfilled mission

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What’s under all this? Let me quote from a text a friend sent to me recently:

It would be interesting to know whether pastors value in-person attendance more than distributed attendance (micro-gatherings) or online attendance.

My feed had a lot of pastors quoting the stat that showed only people who attend in person saw improved mental health in 2020.

Personally, I saw that as very self-serving and bit dangerous as in “see…you need to come back to the building like I said you should…”

I’ve seen that in my feed too.  (I also haven’t seen any pastor mention that in the same poll, low income earners, young adults and single people fared better than others. No one wrote about the political findings either.)

At stake here is a full room versus a fulfilled mission.

In the future, leaders who only focus on filling a room will miss the biggest opportunity they have to fulfill their mission.

If the size of your vision shrinks to the size of a room you can fill, you’ve missed the church’s mission.

In the future leaders who only focus on filling a room will miss the biggest opportunity they have to fulfill their mission.

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4. Growing Churches Will See The Internet and Their Buildings Differently

So, what do you do with your building?

Great question.

You use it to equip people, not just gather them. Yes, people will gather in your building. And that’s awesome.

For too many years, pastors have been focused on one thing: Getting the greatest number of people in the room at the same time.

Sometimes that’s about ministry. Sometimes (honestly) it’s about ego. I’ll confess to both.

The church facilities of the future will be places where people assemble to be equipped to do ministry during the week. I realize that, theoretically, we’ve always believed that, but we often haven’t behaved that way. What we believe and how we behave are often two very different things.

The difference is that most of the people you’re equipping won’t be in the room. You may be speaking to them from the room, but they’ll in their homes, in their cars, at work and in the community.

Right now, most pastors are using church online to get people into the building. In the future, most pastors will use the building to reach people online.

Right now, most pastors are using church online to get people into the building. In the future, most pastors will use the building to reach people online.

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Just because they’re not attending doesn’t mean they aren’t engaged or in community. They can and will gather outside a church building.

In the future, churches that equip Christians will eclipse churches that gather them.

In the future, churches that equip Christians will eclipse churches that gather them.

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5. Content Alone Won’t Cut It. Community and Connection Will. 

The rush in 2020 was to get content online. Which was completely natural and appropriate.

Heading into 2021, the mood around content is shifting.

Pastors are complaining that views are down because people are ‘Zoomed out” or “Screened out.”

Sure, the spike in screen time has been a shock to all our systems, mine included.

But just because you personally feel screened out doesn’t mean the culture is.

If you think people are screened out, run your theory by TikTok or Instagram. Apparently, people aren’t nearly as done with screens as church leaders think.

If you think people are screened out, run your theory by TikTok or Instagram. Apparently, people aren’t nearly as done with screens as church leaders think.

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Which leads us into the fourth trend. Yes, content matters because sharing the Word of God matters…immensely.

However, many Christians now realize they they can watch or listen to their favorite preachers, content creators and voices in the world today any time for free. So they do.

One approach is to try to equal or match the exceptionally gifted and skilled communicators out there. But for most of leaders, that’s not a winning strategy. You won’t be able to compete.

Growing churches (and yes, that includes small and mid-sized churches too) will realize that connection and community will win out over content in the end, and they’ll focus their resources there.

Nobody should be able to out-local or out-community the local the church.

Nobody should be able to out-local or out-community the local the church.

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Absolutely produce the best content you can, but make the goal connecting with people.

When you provide connection (getting to know people, moving them into community, caring for them), it will provide a loyalty and sense of tribe that people can’t get elsewhere.

Therefore, make the goal of digital content connection, not consumption.

Make the goal of digital content connection, not consumption.

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6. Generational Differences Will Become Clearer Than Ever

Shifting gears a little, one of the creeping trends in the last few years is that generational differences are becoming sharper than ever.

While according to one survey, 71% of Boomers preferred physical worship as opposed to digital or hybrid church, only 41% of Gen Z preferred physical worship. Everyone other than Boomers had a preference for hybrid (a combination of in-person and digital gathering) or digital gatherings.

Many studies these days show stark differences between younger adults and older adults.

And while leaders love to pick part data, try a simpler approach. If you think attitudes about worship, racial justice, sexuality, economics, and even things like climate change aren’t morphing where you live (i.e. folks around here are pretty traditional), talk to a youth pastor.

Youth pastors more than almost anyone else sense where trends are heading.

If you want to get more personal, talk to some churched and unchurched teens and young adults.

While this doesn’t change core Christian theology, it does probably means wise leaders will think about their tone and approach.

If you want to get a sense of how the dialogue is changing, David Kinnaman and Gabe Lyon’s UnChristian is still remarkably relevant even fourteen years after its first publication while Faith For Exiles offers an updated perspective.

As Gen Z emerges into the workforce, attitudes and beliefs most leaders were thinking were aberrations and exceptions will become mainstream.

Leaders who understand the emerging culture, its language and its values will have the best chance of reaching it.

Leaders who understand the emerging culture, its language and its values will have the best chance of reaching it.

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7. The Political and Ideological Churches Will Lose Influence With the Unchurched

If 2020 surfaced anything, it’s how political and ideological some kinds of churches have become.

It’s easy in a tribalized culture to become tribal. And while that might score some short term points with like-minded people who are angry and self-righteous (both are characteristics of the political left and the right), in the long run it will diminish your influence with most of the people you’re trying to reach.

Unchurched people aren’t looking for an echo of the culture, they’re seeking an alternative to it.

Unchurched people aren’t looking for an echo of the culture, they’re seeking an alternative to it.

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Moving ahead a few years, the future church will consist of Christians who look, live and sound much more like Jesus than the political candidate of their choice.

What many church leaders are about to face is this truth: Unchurched people aren’t looking for politics or ideology. They’re looking for Christ.

I pray they find him in our churches.

The future church will consist of Christians who look, live and sound much more like Jesus than the political candidate of their choice.

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8. Spiritual Entrepreneurs Will Thrive

These are hard times for all leaders, but as the dust settles and we emerge into the post-pandemic world, leaders who see opportunities instead of obstacles will thrive.

The missing gift set in the church is spiritual entrepreneurship—something the New Testament calls apostleship. It’s the kind of radical determination, innovation and fierceness the Apostle Paul showed.

As I wrote about here, the church today is filled with shepherds, to the point where shepherds are perhaps over-represented in church leadership. What we need most as we navigate new waters in a post-Christian culture is not more shepherds, but spiritual entrepreneurs.

Whether you call it spiritual entrepreneurship or the gift of apostleship, what we need is a new generation of Apostle Pauls who forge out in new directions.

Who experiment boldly. Who dare greatly.

Spiritual entrepreneurs are the kind of leaders who will find tomorrow’s solutions when most leaders can only see the problem.

Spiritual entrepreneurs are the kind of leaders who will find tomorrow’s solutions when most leaders can only see the problem.

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In a marketplace that’s in love with start-ups and new ventures, we need some leaders who are inclined to spend their lives in the marketplace who will take their God-given talents and energy and throw them full time behind the mission of the church.

Some of the ideas that will become widely embraced five years in the future are being birthed right now.

New ways of gathering people, mobilizing and equipping people and moving the mission forward are being developed as you read this.

Micro-churches, the distributed church, community focused churches, the location independent church, and many other new forms of expression are leading the way into the future.

Right now, most of those approaches will get more criticism than praise. In the same way few people thought private citizens renting out their homes and vehicles to others was a good idea (Airbnb and Uber), so a lot of the ideas for church you’ll see in 2021 will be denounced and dismissed…until they’re not.

In the same way few people thought private citizens renting out their homes & vehicles to others was a good idea (Airbnb and Uber), so many ideas for church you’ll see in 2021 will be denounced and dismissed…until they’re not.

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As is often in culture, the leaders you criticize today will be the leaders who coach you tomorrow.

So be open. A lot of good, messy, untested, might-not-work initiatives are going to launch. It’s out of that the future is always born.

As is often in culture, the leaders you criticize today will be the leaders who coach you tomorrow.

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2021 Is Here. Free Help on Digital Preaching, Team Burnout and More.

As hard as it might be, what if 2021 could be a year of real growth for you and your church?

You know that in 2020, some organizations grew while others struggled. I’d love to help your church thrive in 2021.

I know, that sounds crazy (especially after a post like this), but like most things, it’s crazy until it’s not.

I believe 2021 can be a great year for you and your team, and I’d love to help you make it happen.

That’s why I created the 2021 Church Leader Toolkit.

Inside, I cover:

How To Produce Content That Actually Gets Read & Watched
5 Keys To Better Digital Preaching
7 Strategies To Deepen Digital Engagement
How To Keep You And Your Team Out Of Burnout
3 Key Pivots For Every Organization In 2021

The toolkit is free.

You can get access and share the kit with your team here!

What Do You See? 

There could easily have been a dozen trends and I kept it at a meta-level to hopefully spark some creative thinking.

Watch for my 2021 Leadership Trends posts to follow in a few days.

What do you see as you head into 2021? Scroll down and leave a comment!

The post 8 Disruptive Church Trends That Will Rule 2021 (The Rise of the Post-Pandemic Church) appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: 8 Disruptive Church Trends That Will Rule 2021 (The Rise of the Post-Pandemic Church)

The post 8 Disruptive Church Trends That Will Rule 2021 (The Rise of the Post-Pandemic Church) appeared first on Passion for Planting.

By Carey Nieuwhof: You’re so anxious to get 2020 over with. I get it. I feel that too.

it would be amazing if somebody  returned everything to some semblance of normalcy right about now, wouldn’t it?

Sitting here in December 2020 at the end of a long year, it’s tempting to paint 2021 as a relief to all our problems.

Trust me, I feel the urge to do that too. Deeply.

But that would be a mistake.

For some leaders,  it would be a fatal one. Either because it could take you out or your organization down…or both.

Before you dismiss the post or quickly move on to something else more ‘positive’, let me drop some promises in. (Which is actually the point of this post: to help you make it through the end of 2021 and well beyond.)

Lowering your expectations for 2021 now will lead to greater joy, a far more resilient organization, and a much healthier you later.

As they say, the secret to happiness is low expectations. One of the reasons you’re so frustrated and exhausted right now is because you expected things would be better.

Humans do that. Christmas is disappointing because your picture of how your family will behave is different from how they actually behave.

The frustration you feel with your team emerges from the gap between the ideal person you thought you hired and the real person you actually hired.

Lowering your expectations increases both your resilience and your happiness almost every time.

Here are 5 ways that lowering your expectations for 2021 is a really good idea.

Lowering your expectations for 2021 now will lead to greater joy, a far more resilient organization, and a much healthier you later.

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1. The Shut Down Happened Overnight. The Reopening Will Be Far More Gradual and Intermittent.

It’s slowly dawning on most of us that there may not be a reopening ‘day’ or season where everyone floods back in and everything is at it was.

For most organizations, the shut down happened overnight. You were open for business as usual March 9th 2020, and were shut down completely or radically impacted by March 15th.

It’s easy to imagine that the reopening would happen exactly the same way.

There’s incredible news with a vaccine on the way, but both the roll out and its impact on the spread of COVID-19 is going to take a while.

While nobody wants it, we’ll likely have months ahead of the virus surging and retreating, and with that, regulations that move you in and out of degrees of lockdown.

The restrictions themselves will take a while to lift completely.

Government regulations are one thing: human behaviour is quite another.

It might take a while longer for most people to feel comfortable being in crowded public spaces, and some of the pattern changes people have adopted during COVID will likely be permanent.

I think the metaphor of having green light, yellow light and red light people is sound.

Green light people are those who will rush back and be perfectly comfortable.

Yellow light people will be more cautious for months, or maybe longer.

And red light people, made so either by disposition or medical condition, might change how they operate in the public sphere for a much longer time.

Simple realize that this will be a longer, gradual process will help you plan for a longer, gradual re-entry and make you more effective as a result.

For most organizations, the shut down caused by COVID happened overnight. The reopening will be be far more gradual and intermittent.

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2. Normal Is Being Redefined As We Speak

You long for normal. I long for normal.

I also understand every is oh-so-tired of hearing about “the new normal”.

So what can you actually expect?

Emerging out of the pandemic in all likelihood won’t be the return to normal you hope for.

That’s because normal is being redefined as we speak.

Emerging out of the pandemic in all likelihood won’t be the return to normal you hope for. That’s because normal is being redefined as we speak.

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The longer the disruption goes on, the longer temporary habits become permanent ones. And the longer current behavioural norms carry on, the more likely it is that some will become habits.

We will eventually settle into some kind of normalcy, and that’s likely to have a strange and unpredictable mix of familiar and new patterns.

So sure, people will return to live events.  Schools, gyms, restaurant and churches will one day be open without restrictions. (Cheer now).

And to be sure, offices will reopen and traffic jams will happen and people will vacation and airplanes and resorts will operate at capacity again.

But don’t miss the nuance underneath all this.

Will company offices return to exactly where they were pre-pandemic? There is zero indication that’s going to happen. Of course, some offices will reopen as they used to be, but most will change their patterns. As this Harvard survey shows,  remote work will in all likelihood become much more prevalent than it was pre-COVID. Many companies have already downsized and hundreds of thousands (perhaps millions?) of people have already sold their homes and moved to more remote places now where they can easily work from home.

It will be interesting to see what happens with shopping (more home delivery?), school (more home schooling?), fitness (fewer gym memberships now that people bought their own Peleton?) entertainment (are direct-to-home movie releases more of the future after 2021?) Will in-person church attendance take months or years to go back to pre-pandemic levels?

So post-pandemic, whenever we get there, will definitely feel more normal than things to do day. But normal will have shifted. And even a 10-30% variation in patterns is massive disruption, and something every leader needs to plan for starting now.

Post-pandemic will definitely feel more normal than things do today. But normal will have shifted. Even a 10-30% variation in patterns is massive disruption, and something every leader needs to plan for.

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3. The Biggest Certainty Is Unpredictability

Every leader longs for certainty. I do. But even long before the crisis hit, you didn’t really have certainty.

What you had was some form of predictability.  The crisis, of course, took that away.

The unpredictability and uncertainty are like to continue for a while longer. Months for sure. Perhaps longer.

Even long before the crisis hit, you didn’t really have certainty. What you had was some form of predictability. The crisis, of course, took that away.

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A good way to look at 2020 is that it helped build some skills that are essential in unpredictable times: agility, flexibility and the ability to move fast and change again.

Those will likely be even more important in the future.

The last few decades are filled with companies, organizations and churches that died because things changed and they didn’t.

When the post-mortem is done on those organizations, you usually discover they lacked not only the vision to see that change was necessary, but the flexibility and agility needed to change.

You’re developing agility and flexibility as a result of everything you’ve been through. Keep developing them, and don’t let those muscles atrophy.

Organizations that fail lack not only the vision to see that change was necessary, but the flexibility and agility needed to change.

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4. An Unhealthy Rhythm Now Means You Might Not Make It To Then

I recently asked over 75,000 leaders (over email….you can sign up here to join my list) what they’re struggling with. By far, the #1 challenge is exhaustion: their exhaustion and the fatigue of their teams.

The thing I’m most worried about for leaders who see 2021 as a panacea or a finish line of sorts is that they’re not going to make it into 2022. (I explain more on that in Point 5, below.)

Imagining that 2021 is going to give you rest is kind of like thinking you’ll be fine after the tornado, only realizing too late that you now have to rebuild everything.

Yes, things will eventually be better. No, we’re not there yet.

Finding a healthy rhythm during the crisis is essential to being okay after the crisis.

In the same way that so many leaders looked to time off to save them during 2020, only to discover that a week or two off didn’t solve anything, looking to 2021 to save you will just be an exercise in disappointment.

Time off won’t save you from an unsustainable pace when the problem is how you spend your time on.

And if 2021 won’t bring instant relief, it’s critical for you to find a sustainable pace now.

I have a lot of free resources on how to manage your time, energy and priorities to stay healthy, and I have a session in the free 2021 Church Leader Toolkit if you want to learn more (non-church leaders are welcome to the Toolkit as well).

Time off isn’t going to heal this one. How you spend your time on is.

Finding a healthy rhythm during the crisis is essential to being okay after the crisis.

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5. The Greatest Confront the Brutal Facts (But Never Lose Hope)

Let’s finish up by going back to what Jim Collins calls Stockdale Paradox, one of the the principles that a lot of leaders talked about at the early on in the crisis.

As you may remember, Jim Stockdale was an American general captured and imprisoned during the Vietnam war. He was held and tortured for seven years.

Stockdale said the first people to die in captivity were the optimists, who kept thinking things would get better quickly and they’d be released. “They died of a broken heart,” Stockdale said.

Intead, Stockdale argued, the key to survival was to combine realism and hope.  In Stockdale’s words:

“This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end–-which you can never afford to lose–-with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

That essentially is your job in crisis leadership.

And sadly for you and me, the crisis and instability will soon drag into their second year.

You will prevail in the end, but there’s some brutal stuff you and I need to get through before things get better.

Crisis leadership falls apart when leaders embrace the extremes: pessimists only see the real, and naive optimists only see the ideal.

When you embrace both, you discover true leadership. You’ll also emerge out of the crisis stronger and into a much stronger tomorrow.

Crisis leadership falls apart when leaders embrace the extremes: pessimists only see the real, and naive optimists only see the ideal. When you embrace both, you discover true leadership.

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Get The Tools You Need In 2021 (A Free Toolkit)

As hard as it might be, what if 2021 could be a year of real growth for you and your church?

You know that in 2020, some organizations grew while others struggled. I’d love to help your church thrive in 2021.

I know, that sounds crazy (especially after a post like this), but like most things, it’s crazy until it’s not.

I believe 2021 can be a great year for you and your team, and I’d love to help you make it happen.

That’s why I created the 2021 Church Leader Toolkit.

Inside, I cover:

How To Produce Content That Actually Gets Read & Watched
5 Keys To Better Digital Preaching
How To Keep You And Your Team Out Of Burnout
7 Strategies To Deepen Digital Engagement
3 Key Pivots For Every Organization In 2021

I’ll be releasing 5 parts of the toolkit throughout December. And it’s free.

You can get access and share these skills with your team here!

What Do You See?

Any thoughts on the challenges you’ll be facing in 2021? How will you battle them?

Scroll down and leave a comment.

The post Why You Should Lower Your Expectations for 2021 Starting Now appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: Why You Should Lower Your Expectations for 2021 Starting Now

The post Why You Should Lower Your Expectations for 2021 Starting Now appeared first on Passion for Planting.

By Carey Nieuwhof: As things continue to change and the crisis we’re in drags on, you’re probably asking what’s going to happen to physical church attendance in the future. That’s a really important question.

The good news is that as long as there are people, people will gather.

The need for human connection and face to face gatherings runs deep—it’s how we were designed.

But over time, how people gather has changed from generation to generation and moment to moment.

This may be one of those moments for the church.

While in-person gatherings are here to stay, in the future church, people may gather differently.

For decades now, there has been a slow decline in in-person church attendance. Growing churches have bucked that trend and managed to find growth despite massive cultural shifts.

There are indications though that the disruption of 2020 is accelerating those trends even further (here are 3 shocking statistics about how rapidly church is changing).

Yes, physical attendance is here to stay. But it may not follow the patterns quite the way it did even as recently as 2019.

And if the trends are changing rapidly, so should your response.

While the cement is still wet, here are four ways in-person church attendance might well morph further as we head into the future.

So, how will physical attendance change in the future? No one can see the future perfectly, and I may be wrong on some of this, but based on what I’m seeing, here are 5 ways physical church attendance will change in the next few years.

While in-person gatherings are here to stay, in the future church, people may gather differently.

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1. In-Person Doesn’t Necessarily Mean In Your Facility

So let me say it again. The gathered church is here to stay. In the future,  we may just gather differently.

For centuries, the gathering of the church has happened in a facility, and as leaders, we’ve become both accustomed to that and a bit addicted to that way of gathering.

One of the big shifts that the disruption is ushering in is that in-person doesn’t necessarily mean in your facility.

It could be far bigger than that.

The gathered church is here to stay. In the future, we may just gather differently.

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While that sounds threatening, it isn’t nearly as threatening as it seems.

With some of the shift home for work, school, shopping, dining, entertainment and fitness is temporary, a proportion of it will likely be permanent in the post-COVID era. The same is perhaps true with church.

With 71% of Boomers desiring primarily a physical church experience and only 41% of Gen Z desiring a primarily physical experience of church, some kind of change seems inevitable.

Younger generations are deeply social, and forward thinking churches might look to capitalize on facilitating home gatherings, community gatherings and other micro-gatherings that pull people together for in-person experiences.

When church leaders realize that this isn’t a threat, but possibly an advance of the mission, the mission could move forward at greater scale and speed than in a model where everyone had to gather in one central facility.

There will always be people who want to gather in a central facility. And in the future church, there will also be some who want to gather elsewhere.

Before you think ‘house church’, realize that this model could provide a lot more growth than most North American house church models ever did. Many home-based churches to date are a retreat from the organized church. This could become an advance.

In the same way workplaces are embracing permanent distributed teams, a distributed church that’s centrally connected to joint leadership and mission could be a massive step forward for most churches.

Church leaders, in the future in-person gathering doesn’t necessarily mean in your facility. It could be far bigger than that.

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2. In Person Attendance In The Building Will Be A Percentage of Your Real Church

If you think about it, for years now, the people in the building on any given Sunday have been a minority of those who call your church home.

If you have an attendance of 150, you probably have 300 or more people who are actively engaged in your mission. They just don’t show up all at once.

What if in the future, most of the people engaging with your mission won’t be in the building and not just be ‘away’. What if instead, most of the people engaged with your mission will watching online, watching on demand, attending micro-gatherings or engaged in other ways?

I completely empathize with the frustrations of empty seats and not having ‘everyone’ together, but if you can begin to expand your definition of ‘together’, you can realize a much deeper sense of mission.

Or even imagine packing out your auditorium. Awesome. But what if there are still far more people engaged who aren’t in the room?

That leads to a much expanded mission.

If you expand your definition of gathering, it’s much easier to genuinely expand your mission.

If you expand your definition of gathering, it’s much easier to genuinely expand your mission.

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3. You’ll Use the Building to Reach People Online, Not Use Online to Get People In the Building

For centuries, church facilities have existed to assemble people.

And in a pre-digital world, that made a lot of sense. In a digital world, facilities will still play a role, but perhaps they’ll play a different role.

In the future church, the way church leaders think about buildings and online might flip.

Today, most pastors use church online to get people into the building. In the future, most pastors will use the building to reach people online.

Today, most pastors use church online to get people into the building. In the future, most pastors will use the building to reach people online.

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If you look at the way many churches use their online ministry, it’s designed to either get people in the room (join us Sunday at 9) or to show people what’s happening in the room (here’s our livestream).

Those won’t go away, but perhaps the building will no longer be the main event. Equipping people to follow Jesus (wherever they are) might become the main event.

Then, the building becomes a means to an end, not the end in itself.

No matter how large your church is, the world you’re called to reach is larger.

So use the building to reach people online, rather than online to fill the building.

No matter how large your church is, the world you’re called to reach is larger.

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4. In-Person Church Attendance Will Probably Become More In-Frequent Church Attendance

For decades now, even committed Christians have been attending church less often (here are 10 pre-pandemic reasons why).

With the rise of online ministry and millions of people exploring that for the first time, that trend is likely to continue.

I understand how disappointing it can be to have a ‘committed’ follower show up once a month.

When I started ministry, if I ran into someone I hadn’t seen at church in six month at the supermarket, it was pretty much a guarantee they had left our church. More recently, when I run into someone at the grocery store that hasn’t attended church in a few months, they likely haven’t left. They love our church…they just haven’t attended. Having grown up in the church, I still don’t fully understand that mindset, but it’s a real thing.

My guess is that with digital options abounding in the future, frequency might drop further.

And as hard as that is for church leaders, it’s important to remember that culture never asks permission to change. It just changes.

So maybe think about it in a fresh paradigm. In addition to the other points in this post, ask yourself why does ‘attendance’ is still a litmus test for devotion?

Is it a little like saying in sports that only people in the stadium are true fans? Or only people who buy an iPhone from the Apple Store in-person are real customers?

You and I know that’s not true.

I have argued before that decreasing attendance rarely signals increasing devotion. While that has been true in the past, I wonder if it’s always true (or still true) in the new culture that’s emerging, particularly if people gather in person outside of the facility and use online options to deepen their faith, not weaken their faith.

I’ve also argued that attending church no longer makes sense, but engaging the mission does.

We’re all figuring this out in real time.  And yes, it’s confusing.

But if you see the future, you can seize it. If you miss it, you’ll miss it.

Culture never asks permission to change. It just changes.

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5. Digital Church Will be More of a Front Door and A Side Door than a Back Door

The great resistance to digital church in the last decade for many leaders is the fear that people would walk out the back door and never come back.

And in many cases, that happened. Consumers left and never engaged meaningfully again.

What that means is the fear around digital church moving forward is largely a false one.

In fact, many leaders will realize that digital church will serve as much more a front door and side door than a back door. A front door to new people, and side-door for existing people who want to engage more deeply or stay connected when they’re away.

Everyone who’s wanted to leave is gone. That ship has sailed.

Which means those who are left will use your online presence almost exclusively as a way to engage, not to disengage. A way to stay connected, not to disconnect.

It also means many people will discover your church for the first time through your online presence and want to engage physically with you, whether that’s in your facility, in a micro-gathering, in group, or all of the above.

The back door days of digital ministry are pretty much behind us.

The front door and side door days are just beginning.

If you see your physical presence and online presence as working hand in hand, your mission can move forward in more ways than you imagined.

Those who are left at your church will use your online presence almost exclusively as a way to engage, not to disengage. A way to stay connected, not to disconnect.

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What Are You Seeing?

So in-person gatherings are here to stay. So is the digital church.

I realize it’s a confusing time, but it’s also an exciting time.

What are you seeing the sensing as you plan for the future?

Scroll down and leave a comment!

The post In-Person Church Attendance Is Here To Stay (But 5 Ways It’s Changing In the Future) appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: In-Person Church Attendance Is Here To Stay (But 5 Ways It’s Changing In the Future)

The post In-Person Church Attendance Is Here To Stay (But 5 Ways It’s Changing In the Future) appeared first on Passion for Planting.

by Greg Curtis: The quarantine has made it easier than ever to access good teaching about Jesus and the life his death and resurrection makes possible. It has not made it easier however to connect with others to experience that life everyday.

Or has it?

Sherpas-leaders at your church are the ones who help guests reach the summit of a full connection with God and others. How much more are they needed when the guests are climbing the “cyberssimilayas?”

Here are some things we learned about connecting people during the quarantine that we never anticipated. I chatted about these for a half hour on facebook live last week (watch that here) and he is a brief summary of that chat.

Four lessons learned after the 3rd weekend of doing church exclusively online:

Decide on an online gift for guests that has value for them

Our guests leads online are staying between 25 and 40 per weekend. Though much lower than when we physically gathered, we are getting traction by offering a free 5 minute daily video from Gene Appel (our Senior Pastor) to start their day. It’s informal and from his home while he is under quarantine as well. It is important to make sure the video is offered to guests after they experience Gene and know him enough to want to hear from him more.

Determine your new way of recording attendance.

The number of devices logged-in during services has replaced the number of people on campus for our weekly attendance number.

The trouble is there are multiple people watching your service from one device, sometimes just one. Andy Stanley and others have data to support that your real worship attendance in this new world is the number of devices logged-in times 1.7.

Another discovery was that our average time a device was logged-on our website was 22 minutes but only 2 minutes through facebook (no clue why. If you have a clue, let us know in the comments at the bottom). So we subtract facebook attendance from the total altogether.

So our equation for weekend attendance now looks like this:

All Devices times 1.7 minus Facebook =total weekend attendance

Drop your most important ask in the sermon.

If the average attender is staying 22 minutes, odds are they are logging-in late and leaving early. That means that if you make your announcements before or at the the beginning or your service or at the end, they will not be heard.

So pick your most important “Ask” and have your Lead Pastor share it at the beginning or appropriate part of his message.

Develop an engagement pathway not an engagement pitstop for guests online.

When we went online, we fell back into the “engagement pitstop” plan most churches invite their guests into when they gather physically. Pitstops are places you stop to take care of an issue but that’s it. They are one-offs that lead no where else and it is easy to offer announcements that lead to dead ends, offering no clear next steps at the end.

An “engagement pathway” is where you take all your asks of guests that lead to pitstops and begin asking them one at a time in the order that respects the current trust level your guest has with your church.

Not sure what to ask of a guest when? During the Facebook Live, I used this illustration/exercise:

In a dating relationship, what order would you put these asks in?

Saying I love you

Meeting the parents

Spending a day together

Asking them out out a date

Asking for their phone number

Think about it. Mentally put a number next to each bullet point that would put these asks in a reasonable order given where the relationship is at.

You probably noticed that I simply placed these asks in reverse order of what a normal dating relationship would experience.

So if I flip them back in the correct order, you can more easily see the equivalent ask you would initiate in your online relationship with a guest:

Asking for their phone number=Asking for their email at your digital One Place to receive a welcome gift)

Asking them out for a date =Inviting them to your One Program for connecting guests

Spending a day together=Being with them online for all the sessions of your One Program

Meeting the parents=Discussing service with a ministry team leader or attending an online small group for the first time

Saying I love you=Committing themselves to Two Placements on a ministry team and on a small group for the long haul

This creates your engagement pathway, each stop ends with an ask to the next one. Can you also see why asking something too early in the relationship with a guest might result in disengagement?

Engagement, not your Content, will get a guest to return to your church online.

So I also suggested another online engagement idea that is getting traction at Canyon Ridge Church in Las Vegas. It involves inviting guests at the end of a service into 15 minute group chats at the end of the service. I would suggest they wrap around the 3 questions they are asking themselves during the quarantine:

How can I manage my money different during the quarantine?

How can I parent differently during the quarantine?

How can I help someone else in need during this quarantine?

Each chat group could be organized by an expert in your church or on your staff in each area. They could follow a similar format:

Financial Management during Quarantine:

Introduce yourself and set up of Financial Peace University Online

Show the promo video for FPU

Q & A

Share link for sign up. (plan to launch small groups out of the experience)

Parenting during the Quarantine:

Introduce yourself and set up of Online Groups for students

Show the promo video for your online groups for teens (see ours here)

Q & A

Share link for sign up.

How to Help Others during Quarantine

Introduce yourself and set up of Idea of local compassion

Show the promo video for your local compassion efforts (see ours here)

Q & A

Point out how to sign up.

I am very excited to share some things we learned about incorporating text into guest engagement online, the dos and donts of that, and how we ended up with more decisions to follow Jesus than I can ever remember when we met physically. Join me live at Facebook.com/gregcurtis63 8am PST Tuesday April 14.

To hear more about how to increase guest engagement online during this season, let me know here:

Name

*

First Name

Last Name

Email

*

Church Name

*

Church Website

*

Thank you!

Source: Creating an online engagement pathway, taking attendance online, and more (Facebook Live session 3 summary)

The post Creating an online engagement pathway, taking attendance online, and more (Facebook Live session 3 summary) appeared first on Passion for Planting.

By Carey Nieuwhof: You’ve probably noticed. Leading a church is more confusing, frustrating and complex than ever.

In this post, I’ll share some surprising data that shows why it feels that much harder, and some observations and suggestions that I hope can help point you in a more promising direction.

Please hear the tone of this post. I’m a huge believer in the mission of the local church.

I continue to be part of the local church and am doing all I can to support our church and churches around the globe.

So as hard as the news is in this post (and the self-reflection it provokes), I’m believing in a strong, fresh future for the church, its leaders and people.

That said,  the trends developing over the last year are more than a little alarming (I covered 3 other shocking statistics here).

Even if things swing back more positively in the post-pandemic church, these numbers are significant enough to make even the most optimistic leader pay attention and change course (I’m also an optimist).

While we won’t know the full impact of the disruption for a few more years, the steady decline of  church attendance over the decades may be on the verge of becoming a new exodus.

Some recent Barna data that tracks the church attendance patterns of Christians and the general population during 2020 against a pre-pandemic benchmark.

In this post, I’ll share the results of that survey first, and then offer four reflections and reasons why we may seeing such a sudden exodus away from church. The first two are more about our strategy. The next two are more about our tone and the state of our hearts as leaders.

First, though, the numbers.

22% of Churched Adults Have Stopped Going to In-Person or Digital Church

The Barna Group polled the general population, practicing Christians and “churched” adults about their attendance patterns.

The main distinction between practicing Christians and churched adults was whether they considered themselves regular church attenders.

As you can see from the chart above, in 2019, only 14% of all US adults say they never went to church.

In 2020, that number jumped to 53%. That’s an almost 40 point jump in less than twelve months.

In 2019, only 14% of all use adults say the never went to church. In 2020, that number jumped to 53%. That’s an almost 40 point jump in less than twelve months.

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Even starker, though, is how practicing Christians and churched adults answered the question.

In 2019, 100% of practicing Christians and churched adults had gone to church within the past 6 months. Six months into the pandemic, 19% and 22% hadn’t gone to church at all —digital, physical or reopened.

Please let that sink in. That is a massive shift.

In 2019, 100% of practicing Christians and churched adults had gone to church within the past 6 months. Six months into the pandemic, 19% and 22% hadn’t gone to church at all —digital, physical or reopened. @BarnaGroup

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These numbers are also consistent with trends seen early in the pandemic when as many as 50% of Millennials said they’d stopped attending church of any kind.

So there’s no easy way to explain these numbers away.

Almost everywhere you click, the news is challenging.

‘Is This Real?’ Matters More Than ‘Is this Right?’

My guess is as you read through the data you’re alarmed, depressed and a bit angry.

One of the top responses I’ve seen here in the comments and on my social is leaders who are angry about trends like this, or who lament about how bad this is.

As a leader, you can ask the question “Is this right?” from several perspectives.

First, you can argue with the numbers…making up your own facts or looking at your own church as an exception to the rule.

If your church is growing, that’s amazing. But exceptions to the rule don’t change rules.

If your church is growing, that’s amazing. But exceptions to the rule don’t change rules.

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Second, you can argue that people are wrong in leaving the church.

That may be true…but just because it isn’t right doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

Both of these reactions are just that: reactions, not responses. Wise leaders spend their energy responding instead of reacting.

Wise leaders spend their energy responding instead of reacting.

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Yes, there are great arguments from digital and physical church participation. As you can see from other Barna research, anxiety and worry seem to be higher among people who don’t attend church or stopped attending church.

Still, that hasn’t stopped people from attending church.

Here are four reasons I see people are disengaging from the church in record numbers right now.

Just because it isn’t right doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

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1. Overfocusing on Content At the Expense of Connection

Let’s start here.

In the early days of the pandemic, as almost every church pivoted to online, there was a lot of experimentation with different forms of ministry and connection.

Then a lot of churches abandoned experimentation in favour of adaptation.

Soon, most churches gave up doing almost anything other than streaming Sunday services or offering them on demand.

Yes, groups ran in the background and a few other endeavours were tried, but for most churches, the innovation stopped.

It’s like the old paradigm of attendance became a new paradigm of consuming.

The challenge of that is many fold. First, people can get great content anywhere. So they do.

Second, the thing your church has to offer than others don’t is connection.

Content alone won’t build the future, connection will.

Content alone won’t build the future, connection will.

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Moving forward, rethink what you’re doing online to make it more about connection than consumption.

Connection leads to community and relationship—with God and each other.

Moving forward, make the goal of digital content connection, not consumption.

I’ll have a lot more to say about this in future posts, but let’s leave it there for now.

The goal of digital content is connection, not consumption.

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2. An Over-Focus on Attracting, Not Equipping

It’s great to get a lot of views, but the deeper question is what do those views produce?

In the same way a lot of us (myself included) love to see a full room, watching your view count can be a great dopamine hit (for more on what triggers you and why you love full rooms/large views/record stats, read this).

It’s just so easy to focus on attracting, not equipping.

To some extent, the pandemic era church revealed what we had produced: lots of attenders who, once the pattern was interrupted, stopped attending.

It was easy to assume we had cultivated devotion, but instead what we’d really done is created attendance habits that once the pattern was interrupted, quickly dissolved.

To reference the over-used proverb, perhaps we took too many people fishing, but never taught them how to fish.

For years here we’ve talked about the need to focus on engagement, not attendance.

In the digital disruption that’s changed so much, the focus has to shift further from engagement to equipping.

With more people moving than ever before (just wait for 2021), the rise of location-independent churches, and the fragmentation that digital options create, it’s almost like you have to view the people you reach like a teenager who needs to learn to cook, clean and budget before heading off to college. Disciples who know how to follow Jesus endure much better than disciples who have church leaders (priestly, pastoral, or celebrity) who do it for them.

And, of course, that makes engagement even more important. Engagement that leads to connection, that leads to community, that leads to equipping.

That was kind of the mission all along, but the recent crisis has brought it into even sharper focus.

Disciples who know how to follow Jesus endure much better than church leaders (priestly, pastoral, or celebrity) who do it for them.

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3. Christian Meanness on Social Media

This may be the year where almost everyone considered deleting their social media accounts. I know I did.

I searched for the right adjective to describe the tone of Christian posts I’ve seen this year, and the best one I could come up with was ‘mean’.

What many church leaders forget is that whenever you post, the world is watching.

That jab you took at someone you don’t like. That right hook you threw at someone who’s different than you. The cynical/angry/sarcastic rant you posted thinking you told everyone what they need to know.

You know those posts?

Why are Christians so mean?

The unchurched are watching. And listening. And for the most part, you don’t even realize they are. But your profile is public. And they know…they’re connecting the dots.

And maybe, just maybe, while they’re watching and listening, they’re walking away.

2020 was not the Christian world’s finest hour on social media.

Time and time again, when the world needed love, Christians gave it judgment.

It’s not our job to judge the world. It’s our job to love it.

Ultimately (and this is my challenge to myself), any tone issue isn’t really a tone issue: it’s a heart issue.

Because out of the overflow of your heart, your mouth (and fingers) speak.

When our hearts heal, the church will heal.

2020 was not the Christian world’s finest hour on social media. Time and time again, when the world needed love, Christians gave it judgment.

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4. Making Politics and Ideology More Important Than Theology

I wonder if years from now we’ll talk to people who bailed on the church and realize the exodus during the pandemic wasn’t medically induced, but politically induced.

More than any other year I can remember, the evangelical church became inflamed politically and ideologically. Regardless of which direction you lean, it wasn’t pretty.

Having lived and led in a post-Christian culture for decades now (Canada), my experience is that people who show up at a church in a post-Christian culture (which America is quickly becoming) aren’t looking for my political views or ideological bent—they’re looking for God.

My hope is that Christians look, live and sound much more like Jesus than the political candidate of their choice.

My hope is that Christians look, live and sound much more like Jesus than the political candidate of their choice.

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The last vestiges of Christendom may be slipping away in America. And that’s not fatal to the church. Not in the least.

The church was the church long before Constantine and has often been at its best when the culture is indifferent or hostile to it.

It allows love, compassion, generosity, mercy, self-discipline, and self-sacrifice that characterize authentic Christianity to shine.

And, contrary to what many believe, that is in abundant supply in many—if not most—churches.

The collapse of Christian culture should bring out the best in us, not the worst.

What many church leaders are about to face is this truth: Unchurched people aren’t looking for Christendom. They’re looking for Christ.

I pray they find him in our churches.

Unchurched people aren’t looking for Christendom. They’re looking for Christ.

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What pivots do you need to make to flourish in 2021? Some Help.

As hard as it might be, what if 2021 could be a year of real growth for you and your church?

You know that in 2020, some organizations grew while others struggled. I’d love to help your church thrive in 2021.

I know, that sounds crazy (especially after a post like this), but like most things, it’s crazy until it’s not.

I believe 2021 can be a great year for you and your team, and I’d love to help you make it happen.

That’s why I created the 2021 Church Leader Toolkit.

Inside, I cover:

How To Produce Content That Actually Gets Read & Watched
5 Keys To Better Digital Preaching
7 Strategies To Deepen Digital Engagement
How To Keep You And Your Team Out Of Burnout
3 Key Pivots For Every Organization In 2021

The toolkit is free.

You can get access and share the kit with your team here!

What Do You See?

This is a highly complicated subject that 1700 words can’t do justice to.

But clearly something is shifting.

What do you see shifting, and how are you responding? Scroll down and leave a comment!

The post New Exodus? 4 Reasons So Many People (Including Christians) Have Suddenly Left the Church appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: New Exodus? 4 Reasons So Many People (Including Christians) Have Suddenly Left the Church

The post New Exodus? 4 Reasons So Many People (Including Christians) Have Suddenly Left the Church appeared first on Passion for Planting.