By Carey Nieuwhof: So, any idea whether your church or business grow after the pandemic?

Will things spring back to pre-COVID levels? Or will you struggle for years to come?

With so much still up in the air, you might think that question is unanswerable.

Well, yes and no.

To be fair, nobody knows exactly how it will go. We could be for a much longer haul than anyone wants. Not to mention the likely instability of the post-pandemic era ahead.

But the question is answerable at much deeper level, because the difference in attitude between leaders who flourish and leaders who flounder predict the future in a surprisingly accurate way.

One of my favorite leadership books is Jim Collins’ How the Mighty Fall,  written after the Great Recession about formerly iconic companies that ended up failing. (Here’s a more complete list of my top leadership book recommendations.)

With the global crisis causing most of us to entertain thoughts and strategies we’ve never embraced before, I find Collins’ insights as compelling today as they were a dozen years ago. Collins’ observations are based on extensive research. Hence, the accuracy.

The principles I’m sharing in this post are taken from Collins’ book and  they serve as both a solid predictor and warning about the kind of organizations and leaders who will thrive in the post-pandemic world and those who won’t.

Quick side note: I first heard about the book when it first came out in 2009 from a mentor who asked me whether I could possibly be setting myself up for failure based on Collin’s insight.

Those are never fun questions to hear…but my friend was right. His correction saved me and the people I was leading a hundred heartbreaks and possible failure.

Yes, the insights are a bit of a gut-punch, but the kind of gut-punch, as I discovered, that ultimately helps.

So with that in mind, here are five signs you’ll flounder, not flourish after the pandemic.

The difference in attitude between leaders who flourish and leaders who flounder predict the future in a surprisingly accurate way.

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1. You’re Pretty Certain Everything Will Spring Back To Past Levels Because the Rules Don’t Apply to You

Collin’s first sign of failure is something he calls ‘the hubris of success’.

Maybe you were highly successful before COVID. Or, even if you wouldn’t call yourself highly successful, you had a system figured out that kept everything running just fine. Good enough, in other words.

Collins says that’s exactly the trap successful leaders fall into.

Hubris will get you believing your success is deserved rather than something that was fortuitous, fleeting, grace or happened against the odds.

As a result, you’ve stopped learning and growing because you’ve got this figured out and people come to you for answers…so, of course things will snap back in your favor.

Sure, you’ve read that 1 in 5 church-going adults left the church in 2020, but you think your current numbers are solid enough and your number are higher than your friends’ or peers’ numbers. So you’re good.

The rules don’t apply to you, you tell yourself.

And of course, the rules never apply to you until they do.

Pride born of past success is the first sign you won’t see success in the future.

Pride born of past success is the first sign you won’t see success in the future.

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2. You’re Obsessed With Growth

Collins calls the second marker you’re heading for a fall “the undisciplined pursuit of more.” It surfs off the entitlement mentality that the hubris of success brings, and leaders who fall prey to this get hyper-focused on growth.

Collins highlights one pharmaceutical company whose CEO said publicly that they were totally focused on growth as their #1 business objective—not on product breakthroughs, drug development, scientific excellence, not R&D or even increasing productivity.

Growth, Collins points out, is usually a by-product of other things.

It’s not that growth is a bad thing. The problems is the undisciplined pursuit of more. More for more’s sake is the issue, or as Collins puts it, addiction to scale is the problem.

When growth is undisciplined, leaders become ready to sacrifice principles, people and integrity to grow.

You’ll reopen to satisfy your ego and thirst for growth rather than do what’s right (I outlined the idiot’s guide to reopening here).

Look, this one hits me hard personally. I love it when things growth. I hate it when things stagnate or decline.

But I’ve already realized that my desire to grow at all costs ultimately sets everyone up to fail. That by focusing on the fundamentals (these days for me, it’s helping people thrive in life and leadership), far more can be accomplished over the long haul than by simply finding growth hacks that will bring temporary wins.

Here’s the irony: Leaders who are obsessed with growth often face futures filled with decline.

Leaders who are obsessed with growth often face futures filled with decline.

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3. You’re Amplifying The Positive and Discounting the Negative

Look, we’re all trying to stay encouraged. I posted about things to be genuinely encouraged about here.

But here’s the challenge: you can’t motivate your way out of a crisis like this. As hard as it is, you have to lead your way through it.

You can’t motivate your way out of a crisis like this. As hard as it is, you have to lead your way through it.

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Collins calls Stage 3 of how the mighty fall “denial of risk and peril.”

In this stage, leaders amplify the positive and discount the negative—you discount or explain away the negative data rather than presume something is wrong with your organization or leadership.

In other words, leaders highlight and amplify external praise and publicly, pointing out the positive and eliminating the negative.

Truth-tellers get dismissed or punished in this stage and team debate grinds to a halt. The leader only allows opinions he or she likes to come forward.

Finally, almost all the factors associated with the challenges get blamed on external forces or other people.

It’s not us, it’s the pandemic.

The real challenge is the economy…

The statistics lie…that’s not what’s happening

Look, as soon as government lifts the lockdowns everything gets solved

If you want to know what discounting the negative looks like in real life, scroll through the comments on this post. This stage is rampant in a lot of churches and organizations right now.

Leaders who can’t handle the truth get angry…and that’s not healthy for anyone.

If you amplify the positive and discount the negative, you’re likely to run into far more negative in the future.

If you amplify the positive and discount the negative, you’re likely to run into far more negative in the future.

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4. You Think You’ve Discovered A Silver Bullet

As the slide down into failure accelerates, meany leaders find themselves grasping for salvation.

In this stage you find yourself announcing that you’ve discovered a silver bullet solution that will change everything. Or if you haven’t found a silver bullet, you’re searching for one, and trust me, that will turn everything around.

Collins points out that when things start to slide in organizations, leaders grasp at straws, making big dramatic moves that they claim will be game changing or truly innovative.

Another tell tale sign is the hype around the silver bullet or new strategy…hype that isn’t predicated on results but instead precedes results.

Think of “this is going to change everything” or “we’ve totally got this figured out” kind of language, before you’ve really done anything.

This is a particular trap for visionary leaders. Just because you think one thing will change everything doesn’t mean it will.

Just because you think one thing will change everything doesn’t mean it will.

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You might push back and say well isn’t game changing innovation required?

Absolutely.

But real innovation is usually more nuanced, deliberate and comprehensive than the grasping-at-straws desperation you get to when you desire growth at any cost but your strategy doesn’t match.

One additional sign that you’re falling prey to this trap is that as soon as your silver bullet doesn’t work, you grow angry, cynical and start flailing in a new (even opposite) direction out of panic a desperation.

What the team needs in a time like this is calm, deliberate action that moves toward a new direction.

5. You’re Capitulating to Irrelevance or Death

A year into the global crisis, some leaders already find themselves at this stage: capitulation to irrelevance or death.

Maybe you haven’t said anything out loud, but you kind of sense in your spirit that it’s over. That it will never be the same. Or that you don’t have the skills to take things into the future.

Collins makes the argument that it’s very difficult (if not impossible) to move yourself out of this stage.

I’ve you think it’s over, it probably is. After all, the vision of the leader determines the vision of the team.

I’ve you think it’s over, it probably is. After all, the vision of the leader determines the vision of the team.

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I agree with Collins (and Les McKeown, who argues a similar point), that this is a very difficult stage to pull out of, but perhaps it’s not impossible.

The remedy, is to go back through points 1-4 and reverse the action.

Stop assuming things will bounce back, or that the rules don’t apply to you, and humbly work with the entire team to develop a new strategy.

Get over your insecurity and obsession with growth and focus on the fundamentals that bring growth.

Welcome truth tellers and embrace the reality that without deep and systemic change, it may not go well.

Stop looking for silver bullets and embrace calm, deliberate action that moves toward a new direction.

If you find that difficult (and it is difficult), as yourself this simple question: five years from now, what will you wish you had done?

Now go do it.

As you know, innovation (real innovation at least) beats capitulation.

Innovation beats capitulation.

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Any Insights?

As I indicated, this post is a bit of a gut-punch. But over a decade ago, it was exactly the gut punch I needed and I’ve occasionally needed since.

Embrace hard truths like these pave the way to a much better future.

I encourage you to read Collin’s book as it gives a much more detailed insight than this 1500 word post does, but I hope this helps.

Curious—any other signs you see that might indicated struggle or decline is ahead in the post-pandemic world?

I’d love to hear your insights in the comments below.

The post A Surprisingly Accurate Way to See If Your Church or Organization Will Flounder After the Pandemic appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: A Surprisingly Accurate Way to See If Your Church or Organization Will Flounder After the Pandemic

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By Carey Nieuwhof: For years, the key to growth for many churches and other organizations (think media, conferences etc) has been to create great content.

In the case of a church, great preaching often (not always, but often) has been synonymous with growth.

In the case of conferences, media and other organizations focused on messaging, the same thing has been true: generate great content and you grow.

Church leaders, media and live event organizations (we’ll focus on those three for now) have all noticed something over the last decade: it’s been harder and harder to get people in the room.

People are attending church less often. Conferences are finding it harder to fill venues and stadiums.

Great messages that used to guarantee growth don’t any more. What used to attract people now gets a shrug of indifference instead.

Don’t get me wrong: bad content (bad sermons, articles, talks or events) can still kill a mission. But great content (including great, faithful preaching) in and of itself doesn’t naturally generate the kind of momentum it used to.

The question, of course, is why? And what can you do about it?

I realize this is a bit of a strange framework through which to view the work of the church. But as you run through this post, my guess is you’ll see the trends described playing out all around you.

And if you’re trying to reach and equip people in the church or any other organization focused on gathering people around content, you’ll see the patterns.

So…hopefully this post can give you a new framework for moving forward.

Great messages that used to guarantee growth don’t any more. What used to attract people now gets a shrug of indifference instead.

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1. Scarcity Drives Value

If you’re struggling to understand the massive shift happening in the world

Scarcity drives value. The more scarce something is, the more value it has.

When something is scarce, it’s worth something. Conversely, mass availability drives down prices.

Take a look at how humans have interacted with phones over the last three decades.

Scarcity drives value. The more scarce something is, the more value it has.

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In the era of landlines, phone companies made their money off of long distance calls. Your parents and grandparents spent a lot of time agonizing over long distance bills and whether they could afford to make that call to a friend in another state or country, let alone another continent.

Then cell phones came along and suddenly, sensing new competition, phone companies made long distances calls free or almost free, trying to prevent people from ditching their landlines.

Cell phone service service providers underwent a similar evolution, creating scarcity for things as long as they could.

At first, cell phone service providers made their money by charging more for weekday minutes than evening minutes or weekend minutes. 15 years ago, it was still common for people to say “Can I call you after 6? I used up all my day time minutes.”

Then texting came along and phone companies started to include evening and weekend minutes as part of basic plans and instead focused on limiting the number of texts you could send.

Early text messaging packages ‘included’  things like 400 free text messages, or 1000 text messages. Most of us couldn’t imagine sending even close to that number of texts. Until, of course, we did.

Now, text messaging and voice calls are almost all unlimited.

Which moves us to a more recent frontier: data. And after years of people worried about going over their monthly data allowances, you and I are now watching before our eyes as almost all providers are now pivoting to unlimited data.

The point?

Things that used to be scarce and valuable even a few years ago aren’t any more. And it changes so quickly.

You don’t need to think much past toilet paper in a pandemic, bitcoin or Tesla shares to understand how quickly value fluctuates.

Value, fundamentally, is about perception. If people perceive value, they are happy to pay for it or line up for it. If they don’t, they won’t.

Value, fundamentally, is about perception. If people perceive value, they are happy to pay for it or line up for it. If they don’t, they won’t.

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2. The World is Now Drowning in Content

While no one was really paying attention, the exact same thing happened to content.

Fifteen years ago, you paid registration fees, flights and hotels to hear a keynote speaker deliver a message because you had never heard her before and that’s where she shared her ideas. 

Then the internet exploded, and suddenly you’ve probably heard every message from your favorite thought leader/writer/preacher via YouTube, social media or a multitude of other sites.

So what’s a conference’s competitive advantage now, when TEDTalks you can watch for free garner tens of millions views and two million podcasts on Spotify and ApplePodcasts that serve most listeners for free?

A very similar thing happened for church leaders in the last decade.

Go back a generation, and the only way to hear a preacher was to attend that local church. Maybe if you had a relative in a church who told you how awesome a preacher was, you might subscribe to the cassette ministry and get tapes sent to you.

But that was about it. You essentially listened to the preachers nearest you, and that was it. Radio and television offered you a slightly wider menu, but even then, none of that was available on-demand unless you subscribed to that particularly cassette ministry.

Messages in and of themselves were scarce, time limited events (you had to assemble at 9 or 11 to hear one).

Fast-forward to today, and sermons from incredible communicators are anywhere and everywhere. They’re also free and available on-demand.

The Disruption of 2020 accelerated that trend even more. Almost every church moved online, and more people than ever realize they have access to the top communicators in the world any time, anywhere, for free.

Almost every church moved online, and more people than ever realize they have access to the top communicators in the world any time, anywhere, for free.

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The challenge is that many churches are still primarily communicating a message designed for another era:

Join us for our new series Saturday Sunday at 9. 

Don’t miss last Sunday’s message. Available online, on-demand.

I can’t wait to share a brand new message with you.

Preachers will often tell themselves and their church that this is different because they’re preaching the Word of God.

And that’s true.

But so are a thousand other pastors. And their messages are available just like yours. Some of them sound just like yours. And some of them (let’s be honest) are more compelling than yours.

Please hear me. I am NOT insulting your preaching. I now how hard you work and how sincere you are.

I’m a preacher too. I’m just realizing things have changed—in my lifetime and yours.

What moved people to hear local preachers in the past will not move them to hear you in the future.

What moved people to hear local preachers in the past will not move them to hear you in the future.

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That may not be right. But it is real.

So what do you do?

Well the first thing is to realize that what you’re pretending is scarce isn’t. At least not anymore.

When you behave like something is scarce or has tremendous value when it doesn’t, you not only confuse people, you lose people.

Then you come up with a new strategy.

When you behave like something is scarce or has tremendous value when it doesn’t, you not only confuse people, you lose people.

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3. Meaning and Insight Are Rare

Is it possible to grow a church or organization with great content?

You bet. It’s just harder.

With the explosion of digital options for content, there are more and more communicators and preachers who will draw followers and views in the millions.

But they’ll be the outliers…the charismatic communicators who have exceptional gifts, talents and skills (and with it, hopefully character to match).

But what about the rest of us?

While there’s no shortage of information in our culture, there is a shortage of meaning and insight.

It’s one thing to know something, it’s another to know what it means or why it’s significant.

While there’s no shortage of information in our culture, there is a shortage of meaning and insight. It’s one thing to know something, it’s another to know what it means or why it’s significant.

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The more you can help people cut through the noise and get to the heart of why things matter, how they matter and help them integrate the insights into their lives, the more people will value your content.

This is true both for preachers and any content creator.

This is particularly true of the next generation. They’ve had more access to information than any generation who’s ever lived.

They just don’t know what to do with it.

Any and all help you can give them is both needed and valued.

Meaning and insight are so scarce these days that people almost immediately see the value when they find it.

The next generation had more access to information than any generation who’s ever lived. They just don’t know what to do with it.

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4. Community and Connection Are So Scarce 

So does all this mean you should abandon content?

Nope. Not at all.

Great preaching is needed and required. So is meaningful content. But again, everyone you’ve reached or are trying to reach has access to more content than they can possible process.

Providing meaning and insight will help, but it’s rarely enough.

What is deeply scarce right now are community and connection.

A year into the pandemic, people are more isolated than ever. That’s playing out the crisis in mental health, rising addictions and new (and dangerous) tribes are forming (we are the most tribalized we’ve been as a culture in generations).

Authentic, loving and genuine community are more scarce than they have ever been in our lifetime.

The competitive advantage of the local church isn’t content, it’s community and connection.

Every church should be running to fill that hole.

The competitive advantage of the local church isn’t content, it’s community and connection.

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If you think about the future of any live event…the power will not be just in the content, because almost everyone in the room will have heard the content or content like it before. It will be in community and connection—the ability to connect people to each other around a common cause.

Moving forward, make the goal of digital content connection and community, not consumption.

Sure, absolutely produce the best content you can, but make the end goal connecting people to each other.

What used to be scarce—content—isn’t. What’s truly scarce is community and connection. So build the future on that.

What used to be scarce—content—isn’t. What’s truly scarce is community and connection. So build the future on that.

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What Do You See?

I realize this is a completely different way of thinking about what’s happening, but I hope it can connect some dots for you. Not everyone will get it. But if you get it, it will move your mission forward like few other things.

What are you seeing about scarcity and value?

How is it shaping your plans for the future?

Scroll down and leave a comment.

The post The New Scarcity: Why Content Alone Won’t Generate Future Growth For Your Church Or Organization appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: The New Scarcity: Why Content Alone Won’t Generate Future Growth For Your Church Or Organization

The post The New Scarcity: Why Content Alone Won’t Generate Future Growth For Your Church Or Organization appeared first on Passion for Planting.

By TheChurch.Digital: As church leaders in the midst of this COVID season, there are certainly questions on this whole Digital Church thing. Is this effective? Is it working? Chances are your church leadership thinks they have an idea of what’s happening. There are even “experts” like me to tell you what we think is happening. But has anyone actually taken the time to ask the actual people attending (or not attending) our online services?

Enter Barna Research into the conversation. Barna & Stadia just partnered to release the largest report to date on Church Online usage to date… the report centers church attenders, church dropouts… people passionate (and not passionate) about Church Online. What are they receptive to? What are they looking for? Physical? Digital? Hybrid? Barna’s Report confirms some trends that we already understood, but also opened up a number of trends that I, for one, didn’t see coming.

So for the conversation we’re bringing in Savannah Kimberlin from Barna to help us unpack what’s happening here, and help us get a grasp on the future of Hybrid Church.

If you’re enjoying this episode, subscribe for free using your favorite podcast app below:

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ON THE SHOW

Source: PODCAST 105: Savannah Kimberlin & Barna’s “6 Questions about the Future of the Hybrid Church”

The post PODCAST 105: Savannah Kimberlin & Barna’s "6 Questions about the Future of the Hybrid Church" appeared first on Passion for Planting.

By Carey Nieuwhof: As things continue to change and the crisis we’re in drags on, you’re probably asking what’s going to happen to physical church attendance in the future. That’s a really important question.

The good news is that as long as there are people, people will gather.

The need for human connection and face to face gatherings runs deep—it’s how we were designed.

But over time, how people gather has changed from generation to generation and moment to moment.

This may be one of those moments for the church.

While in-person gatherings are here to stay, in the future church, people may gather differently.

For decades now, there has been a slow decline in in-person church attendance. Growing churches have bucked that trend and managed to find growth despite massive cultural shifts.

There are indications though that the disruption of 2020 is accelerating those trends even further (here are 3 shocking statistics about how rapidly church is changing).

Yes, physical attendance is here to stay. But it may not follow the patterns quite the way it did even as recently as 2019.

And if the trends are changing rapidly, so should your response.

While the cement is still wet, here are four ways in-person church attendance might well morph further as we head into the future.

So, how will physical attendance change in the future? No one can see the future perfectly, and I may be wrong on some of this, but based on what I’m seeing, here are 5 ways physical church attendance will change in the next few years.

While in-person gatherings are here to stay, in the future church, people may gather differently.

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1. In-Person Doesn’t Necessarily Mean In Your Facility

So let me say it again. The gathered church is here to stay. In the future,  we may just gather differently.

For centuries, the gathering of the church has happened in a facility, and as leaders, we’ve become both accustomed to that and a bit addicted to that way of gathering.

One of the big shifts that the disruption is ushering in is that in-person doesn’t necessarily mean in your facility.

It could be far bigger than that.

The gathered church is here to stay. In the future, we may just gather differently.

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While that sounds threatening, it isn’t nearly as threatening as it seems.

With some of the shift home for work, school, shopping, dining, entertainment and fitness is temporary, a proportion of it will likely be permanent in the post-COVID era. The same is perhaps true with church.

With 71% of Boomers desiring primarily a physical church experience and only 41% of Gen Z desiring a primarily physical experience of church, some kind of change seems inevitable.

Younger generations are deeply social, and forward thinking churches might look to capitalize on facilitating home gatherings, community gatherings and other micro-gatherings that pull people together for in-person experiences.

When church leaders realize that this isn’t a threat, but possibly an advance of the mission, the mission could move forward at greater scale and speed than in a model where everyone had to gather in one central facility.

There will always be people who want to gather in a central facility. And in the future church, there will also be some who want to gather elsewhere.

Before you think ‘house church’, realize that this model could provide a lot more growth than most North American house church models ever did. Many home-based churches to date are a retreat from the organized church. This could become an advance.

In the same way workplaces are embracing permanent distributed teams, a distributed church that’s centrally connected to joint leadership and mission could be a massive step forward for most churches.

Church leaders, in the future in-person gathering doesn’t necessarily mean in your facility. It could be far bigger than that.

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2. In Person Attendance In The Building Will Be A Percentage of Your Real Church

If you think about it, for years now, the people in the building on any given Sunday have been a minority of those who call your church home.

If you have an attendance of 150, you probably have 300 or more people who are actively engaged in your mission. They just don’t show up all at once.

What if in the future, most of the people engaging with your mission won’t be in the building and not just be ‘away’. What if instead, most of the people engaged with your mission will watching online, watching on demand, attending micro-gatherings or engaged in other ways?

I completely empathize with the frustrations of empty seats and not having ‘everyone’ together, but if you can begin to expand your definition of ‘together’, you can realize a much deeper sense of mission.

Or even imagine packing out your auditorium. Awesome. But what if there are still far more people engaged who aren’t in the room?

That leads to a much expanded mission.

If you expand your definition of gathering, it’s much easier to genuinely expand your mission.

If you expand your definition of gathering, it’s much easier to genuinely expand your mission.

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3. You’ll Use the Building to Reach People Online, Not Use Online to Get People In the Building

For centuries, church facilities have existed to assemble people.

And in a pre-digital world, that made a lot of sense. In a digital world, facilities will still play a role, but perhaps they’ll play a different role.

In the future church, the way church leaders think about buildings and online might flip.

Today, most pastors use church online to get people into the building. In the future, most pastors will use the building to reach people online.

Today, most pastors use church online to get people into the building. In the future, most pastors will use the building to reach people online.

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If you look at the way many churches use their online ministry, it’s designed to either get people in the room (join us Sunday at 9) or to show people what’s happening in the room (here’s our livestream).

Those won’t go away, but perhaps the building will no longer be the main event. Equipping people to follow Jesus (wherever they are) might become the main event.

Then, the building becomes a means to an end, not the end in itself.

No matter how large your church is, the world you’re called to reach is larger.

So use the building to reach people online, rather than online to fill the building.

No matter how large your church is, the world you’re called to reach is larger.

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4. In-Person Church Attendance Will Probably Become More In-Frequent Church Attendance

For decades now, even committed Christians have been attending church less often (here are 10 pre-pandemic reasons why).

With the rise of online ministry and millions of people exploring that for the first time, that trend is likely to continue.

I understand how disappointing it can be to have a ‘committed’ follower show up once a month.

When I started ministry, if I ran into someone I hadn’t seen at church in six month at the supermarket, it was pretty much a guarantee they had left our church. More recently, when I run into someone at the grocery store that hasn’t attended church in a few months, they likely haven’t left. They love our church…they just haven’t attended. Having grown up in the church, I still don’t fully understand that mindset, but it’s a real thing.

My guess is that with digital options abounding in the future, frequency might drop further.

And as hard as that is for church leaders, it’s important to remember that culture never asks permission to change. It just changes.

So maybe think about it in a fresh paradigm. In addition to the other points in this post, ask yourself why does ‘attendance’ is still a litmus test for devotion?

Is it a little like saying in sports that only people in the stadium are true fans? Or only people who buy an iPhone from the Apple Store in-person are real customers?

You and I know that’s not true.

I have argued before that decreasing attendance rarely signals increasing devotion. While that has been true in the past, I wonder if it’s always true (or still true) in the new culture that’s emerging, particularly if people gather in person outside of the facility and use online options to deepen their faith, not weaken their faith.

I’ve also argued that attending church no longer makes sense, but engaging the mission does.

We’re all figuring this out in real time.  And yes, it’s confusing.

But if you see the future, you can seize it. If you miss it, you’ll miss it.

Culture never asks permission to change. It just changes.

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5. Digital Church Will be More of a Front Door and A Side Door than a Back Door

The great resistance to digital church in the last decade for many leaders is the fear that people would walk out the back door and never come back.

And in many cases, that happened. Consumers left and never engaged meaningfully again.

What that means is the fear around digital church moving forward is largely a false one.

In fact, many leaders will realize that digital church will serve as much more a front door and side door than a back door. A front door to new people, and side-door for existing people who want to engage more deeply or stay connected when they’re away.

Everyone who’s wanted to leave is gone. That ship has sailed.

Which means those who are left will use your online presence almost exclusively as a way to engage, not to disengage. A way to stay connected, not to disconnect.

It also means many people will discover your church for the first time through your online presence and want to engage physically with you, whether that’s in your facility, in a micro-gathering, in group, or all of the above.

The back door days of digital ministry are pretty much behind us.

The front door and side door days are just beginning.

If you see your physical presence and online presence as working hand in hand, your mission can move forward in more ways than you imagined.

Those who are left at your church will use your online presence almost exclusively as a way to engage, not to disengage. A way to stay connected, not to disconnect.

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What Are You Seeing?

So in-person gatherings are here to stay. So is the digital church.

I realize it’s a confusing time, but it’s also an exciting time.

What are you seeing the sensing as you plan for the future?

Scroll down and leave a comment!

The post In-Person Church Attendance Is Here To Stay (But 5 Ways It’s Changing In the Future) appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: In-Person Church Attendance Is Here To Stay (But 5 Ways It’s Changing In the Future)

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by Carey Nieuwhof: You’ve had so much change thrown at you this year, it’s hard to know what to do.

Especially about church online.

As more and more churches re-gather, it will be easier than ever to look at church online as something you had to do to survive, or as a side project you keep going while you focus 90% of your time and energy on in-person gatherings.

And that would be a mistake. For some churches, it might be a fatal mistake.

For others, it’s won’t be fatal, but it might mean you grossly under-realize your potential and miss the opportunity of a lifetime.

To help you both realize the potential of church online and grow your online ministry, I’m hosting a free Online Church Engagement Summit with Levi Lusko, Nona Jones and Bobby Gruenewald.

You can register your entire team for free here to how to turn viewers into engagers with insights from the leaders behind YouVersion, ChurchOnline, Facebook and Fresh Life Church.

In this post, I’ll take on seven weird lies about online church I keep hearing that it’s time to finally stop believing.

As churches re-gather, it will be easier than ever to look at church online as something you had to do to survive, or as a side project that doesn’t require much attention. For some churches, that will be a fatal mistake.

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1. People are screened out

I hear this one almost every day from church leaders.

Sure, the spike in screen time in 2020 has been a shock to all our systems, mine included. And yes, people are looking for chances to meet in person, go for a walk, or do something other than take yet another Zoom call.

But just because you personally feel screened out doesn’t mean the culture is.

If you think people are screened out, run your theory by Tik-Tok or Instagram. Apparently people aren’t nearly as done with screens as you think.

Pastors, if you think people are screened out, run your theory by Tik-Tok or Instagram. Apparently people aren’t nearly as done with screens as you think.

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But the idea that people are just screened out doesn’t resonate with long term trends. In 2019, for the first time ever, the amount of daily minutes people spent on their mobile devices surpassed the minutes they spent watching TV. The younger the demographic, the more true that is.

The truth is time spent on social media has been rising every year since it was invented. The average American spends 152 minutes a day on social media alone…that doesn’t include other online activity.

You can find some evidence Gen-Z is being more careful about social media taking over their lives (and some are quitting or taking breaks). That said, 91% of Gen Z still use social media .

So what’s going on? Here’s my theory.

People are screened out on things that aren’t interesting to them. People are screened out on bad content.

But are they screened out? Nope.

At least not yet anyway.

People are screened out on things that aren’t interesting to them. People are screened out on bad content. But are they screened out? Nope.

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2. The internet is “temporary”

I have a hard time this is actually something church leaders argue, but I’ve heard so many versions of this I had to list it.

“The internet is temporary” is an actual quote I pulled from the comments on my blog.

Other variations of this include

When everyone can come back in person, they will.

People don’t like technology. 

Online won’t last. It’s just a bridge to get us to re-opening.

I personally wouldn’t bet the future on the internet being temporary.

But resistance to technology and predicting its demise is a pretty usual thing.

This 1985 article from a New York Times columnist predicted that laptop computers were a fad that was fading fast:

On the whole, people don’t want to lug a computer with them to the beach or on a train to while away hours they would rather spend reading the sports or business section of the newspaper.

Somehow, the microcomputer industry has assumed that everyone would love to have a keyboard grafted on as an extension of their fingers. It just is not so.

Just because you don’t like something or don’t fully understand it doesn’t mean it isn’t true.

And just a reminder, you’re reading this on your phone.

I’m guessing the internet is here to stay and planning my strategy around it.

Just because you don’t like something or don’t fully understand it doesn’t mean it isn’t true.

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3. Online relationships aren’t real relationships

Another argument I keep hearing is that online relationships aren’t real relationships.

To begin with, many leaders are changing their mind on that as we speak, discovering that people who were either resistant to face to face gatherings or couldn’t get to one are loving the ability to connect digitally. Nicky Gumbel’s story of moving Alpha online for the first time in 2020 and seeing huge results inspiring.

The reality is we all live in a hybrid of online and real life relationships.

You FaceTime your parents and then see them three nights later for dinner. You text your friend and minutes later meet up for coffee. Some long-distance relationships are kept alive because of technology.

According to a recent Stanford study, more couples now meet online than through friends, family or church.

Naturally, those relationships migrate into real life, but in many ways, that’s what the church can expect for the future.

People who meet you online will eventually meet you in person. But if you only rely on in-person for connection, you’re greatly limiting your options.

Saying online relationships aren’t real relationships is a little like saying online shopping isn’t real shopping. Ask Amazon whether they would agree with that.

Saying online relationships aren’t real relationships is a little like saying online shopping isn’t real shopping.

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4. My people aren’t online

I have to push back on this one a bit.

Really, who are you leading?

While it’s true that in rural areas internet usage and adoption is lower than in suburban and urban areas, even in rural America, 86% of people say they use the internet daily.  In 2019, 90% of Americans overall say they regularly use the internet.

I appreciate the fact that pastors have a heart for people who don’t have internet. That reflects a shepherd’s heart and there are workarounds for that.

But 8.7% of American’s don’t have access to cars. That hasn’t stopped church leaders from constructing buildings that require cars.

I love that leaders want to help those with little access to technology. But your pastoral heart shouldn’t stop you from using technology.

Almost all the people you want to reach and connect with are online. It’s time for the church to embrace that.

Almost all the people you want to reach and connect with are online. It’s time for the church to embrace that.

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5. Online attendance will keep dropping

As churches re-gather (and in North America, the majority are now open for some kind of in-person services) pastors are noticing a drop in online attendance.

A few thoughts.

If you neglect your online presence, online attendance will continue to drop. Almost everything you neglect declines.  As I shared in this post, the trap for many leaders in re-gathering is the trap of doing nothing well: you don’t have enough staff and resources to do in-person or online well.

If you neglect your online presence, online attendance will continue to drop. Almost everything you neglect declines.

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Moving forward though, wise leaders will invest more time, skill and expertise in their online experience. And when you do that, you’ll see your effectiveness grow and with it, your online attendance and engagement.

If the internet was declining, it’s reasonable to think online attendance is bound to keep dropping.

But the internet isn’t declining.

And churches who embrace online ministry will see tremendous fruit down the road. Hang in there.

If the internet was declining, it’s reasonable to think online attendance is bound to keep dropping. But the internet isn’t declining.

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6. It’s impossible to get people to engage online

This is a hard one.

It is tough to get people to engage online.  But it’s not impossible. You just haven’t figured it out yet.

Reddit, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and many leaders online have figured out how to get people to engage.  Some churches have done a great job at this too.

To help, I’m hosting The Online Church Engagement Summit, a FREE 90-minute online event featuring Levi Lusko, Nona Jones and Bobby Gruenewald.

During the summit, we’ll share best practices from YouVersion, ChurchOnline, Facebook and Fresh Life Church about how to turn viewers into engagers. YouVersion alone has 443 million installs on devices globally that see people engaging daily with God’s Word. We’ll share industry best practices that will help you and your team.

You can register your team for free here.

Turning viewers into engagers is a tough nut to crack. But you can do it.

7. I can afford to ignore this

Returning to what you know, what you’re good at and what you’ve had success with in the past is really tempting.

In the midst of an unprecedented amount of change, it’s natural to cling to the familiar. It’s also a terrible leadership strategy.

In the midst of an unprecedented amount of change, it’s natural to cling to the familiar. It’s also a terrible leadership strategy.

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Here’s the truth, in the short term you can ignore online. And you’ll probably go back to 40-70% of what you used to have in church pre-COVID. You might even eventually grow back to 100% of what you had.

Success is intoxicating. But when your success is based on an approach that was already producing diminishing returns, your success is both short-lived and much smaller than it could have been.

As a leader, you love to think you can defy the odds, recreating something no one else can do and ignore the trends. I do too.

But of course, the rules never apply to you until they do.

And when they do, and your effectiveness is far less than you want it to be, you might wish you could get this moment back.

So seize it now. The future you will thank you.

So will all the people you reach.

The rules never apply to you until they do.

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Free Online Engagement Summit—Turn Online Viewers Into Engagers

So you’ve got people watching your church online. How do you get them to engage?

The Online Church Engagement Summit is a 90-minute value-packed live event on October 8th that will show you how to turn viewers into engagers.

Learn practical strategies for engaging your online audience from the leaders behind Fresh Life, YouVersion, Church Online, and Facebook.

You and your team will learn strategies not just to get people to like comment and share, but to move beyond building consumers and start building disciples.

If you’ve thought you don’t know where to begin with online church, or if you’ve had success online but want to reach and engage more people, The Online Church Engagement Summit is perfect for you and your team.

Register for free today.

Any Weird Lies You’ve Noticed?

So this is a strange time. Any lies you’re noticing about the future it’s time to move past?

Scroll down and leave a comment!

The post 7 Weird Lies About Online Church Pastors Need To Stop Believing appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: 7 Weird Lies About Online Church Pastors Need To Stop Believing

The post 7 Weird Lies About Online Church Pastors Need To Stop Believing appeared first on Passion for Planting.

By Carey Nieuwhof: You’ve probably noticed. Leading a church is more confusing, frustrating and complex than ever.

In this post, I’ll share some surprising data that shows why it feels that much harder, and some observations and suggestions that I hope can help point you in a more promising direction.

Please hear the tone of this post. I’m a huge believer in the mission of the local church.

I continue to be part of the local church and am doing all I can to support our church and churches around the globe.

So as hard as the news is in this post (and the self-reflection it provokes), I’m believing in a strong, fresh future for the church, its leaders and people.

That said,  the trends developing over the last year are more than a little alarming (I covered 3 other shocking statistics here).

Even if things swing back more positively in the post-pandemic church, these numbers are significant enough to make even the most optimistic leader pay attention and change course (I’m also an optimist).

While we won’t know the full impact of the disruption for a few more years, the steady decline of  church attendance over the decades may be on the verge of becoming a new exodus.

Some recent Barna data that tracks the church attendance patterns of Christians and the general population during 2020 against a pre-pandemic benchmark.

In this post, I’ll share the results of that survey first, and then offer four reflections and reasons why we may seeing such a sudden exodus away from church. The first two are more about our strategy. The next two are more about our tone and the state of our hearts as leaders.

First, though, the numbers.

22% of Churched Adults Have Stopped Going to In-Person or Digital Church

The Barna Group polled the general population, practicing Christians and “churched” adults about their attendance patterns.

The main distinction between practicing Christians and churched adults was whether they considered themselves regular church attenders.

As you can see from the chart above, in 2019, only 14% of all US adults say they never went to church.

In 2020, that number jumped to 53%. That’s an almost 40 point jump in less than twelve months.

In 2019, only 14% of all use adults say the never went to church. In 2020, that number jumped to 53%. That’s an almost 40 point jump in less than twelve months.

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Even starker, though, is how practicing Christians and churched adults answered the question.

In 2019, 100% of practicing Christians and churched adults had gone to church within the past 6 months. Six months into the pandemic, 19% and 22% hadn’t gone to church at all —digital, physical or reopened.

Please let that sink in. That is a massive shift.

In 2019, 100% of practicing Christians and churched adults had gone to church within the past 6 months. Six months into the pandemic, 19% and 22% hadn’t gone to church at all —digital, physical or reopened. @BarnaGroup

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These numbers are also consistent with trends seen early in the pandemic when as many as 50% of Millennials said they’d stopped attending church of any kind.

So there’s no easy way to explain these numbers away.

Almost everywhere you click, the news is challenging.

‘Is This Real?’ Matters More Than ‘Is this Right?’

My guess is as you read through the data you’re alarmed, depressed and a bit angry.

One of the top responses I’ve seen here in the comments and on my social is leaders who are angry about trends like this, or who lament about how bad this is.

As a leader, you can ask the question “Is this right?” from several perspectives.

First, you can argue with the numbers…making up your own facts or looking at your own church as an exception to the rule.

If your church is growing, that’s amazing. But exceptions to the rule don’t change rules.

If your church is growing, that’s amazing. But exceptions to the rule don’t change rules.

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Second, you can argue that people are wrong in leaving the church.

That may be true…but just because it isn’t right doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

Both of these reactions are just that: reactions, not responses. Wise leaders spend their energy responding instead of reacting.

Wise leaders spend their energy responding instead of reacting.

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Yes, there are great arguments from digital and physical church participation. As you can see from other Barna research, anxiety and worry seem to be higher among people who don’t attend church or stopped attending church.

Still, that hasn’t stopped people from attending church.

Here are four reasons I see people are disengaging from the church in record numbers right now.

Just because it isn’t right doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

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1. Overfocusing on Content At the Expense of Connection

Let’s start here.

In the early days of the pandemic, as almost every church pivoted to online, there was a lot of experimentation with different forms of ministry and connection.

Then a lot of churches abandoned experimentation in favour of adaptation.

Soon, most churches gave up doing almost anything other than streaming Sunday services or offering them on demand.

Yes, groups ran in the background and a few other endeavours were tried, but for most churches, the innovation stopped.

It’s like the old paradigm of attendance became a new paradigm of consuming.

The challenge of that is many fold. First, people can get great content anywhere. So they do.

Second, the thing your church has to offer than others don’t is connection.

Content alone won’t build the future, connection will.

Content alone won’t build the future, connection will.

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Moving forward, rethink what you’re doing online to make it more about connection than consumption.

Connection leads to community and relationship—with God and each other.

Moving forward, make the goal of digital content connection, not consumption.

I’ll have a lot more to say about this in future posts, but let’s leave it there for now.

The goal of digital content is connection, not consumption.

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2. An Over-Focus on Attracting, Not Equipping

It’s great to get a lot of views, but the deeper question is what do those views produce?

In the same way a lot of us (myself included) love to see a full room, watching your view count can be a great dopamine hit (for more on what triggers you and why you love full rooms/large views/record stats, read this).

It’s just so easy to focus on attracting, not equipping.

To some extent, the pandemic era church revealed what we had produced: lots of attenders who, once the pattern was interrupted, stopped attending.

It was easy to assume we had cultivated devotion, but instead what we’d really done is created attendance habits that once the pattern was interrupted, quickly dissolved.

To reference the over-used proverb, perhaps we took too many people fishing, but never taught them how to fish.

For years here we’ve talked about the need to focus on engagement, not attendance.

In the digital disruption that’s changed so much, the focus has to shift further from engagement to equipping.

With more people moving than ever before (just wait for 2021), the rise of location-independent churches, and the fragmentation that digital options create, it’s almost like you have to view the people you reach like a teenager who needs to learn to cook, clean and budget before heading off to college. Disciples who know how to follow Jesus endure much better than disciples who have church leaders (priestly, pastoral, or celebrity) who do it for them.

And, of course, that makes engagement even more important. Engagement that leads to connection, that leads to community, that leads to equipping.

That was kind of the mission all along, but the recent crisis has brought it into even sharper focus.

Disciples who know how to follow Jesus endure much better than church leaders (priestly, pastoral, or celebrity) who do it for them.

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3. Christian Meanness on Social Media

This may be the year where almost everyone considered deleting their social media accounts. I know I did.

I searched for the right adjective to describe the tone of Christian posts I’ve seen this year, and the best one I could come up with was ‘mean’.

What many church leaders forget is that whenever you post, the world is watching.

That jab you took at someone you don’t like. That right hook you threw at someone who’s different than you. The cynical/angry/sarcastic rant you posted thinking you told everyone what they need to know.

You know those posts?

Why are Christians so mean?

The unchurched are watching. And listening. And for the most part, you don’t even realize they are. But your profile is public. And they know…they’re connecting the dots.

And maybe, just maybe, while they’re watching and listening, they’re walking away.

2020 was not the Christian world’s finest hour on social media.

Time and time again, when the world needed love, Christians gave it judgment.

It’s not our job to judge the world. It’s our job to love it.

Ultimately (and this is my challenge to myself), any tone issue isn’t really a tone issue: it’s a heart issue.

Because out of the overflow of your heart, your mouth (and fingers) speak.

When our hearts heal, the church will heal.

2020 was not the Christian world’s finest hour on social media. Time and time again, when the world needed love, Christians gave it judgment.

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4. Making Politics and Ideology More Important Than Theology

I wonder if years from now we’ll talk to people who bailed on the church and realize the exodus during the pandemic wasn’t medically induced, but politically induced.

More than any other year I can remember, the evangelical church became inflamed politically and ideologically. Regardless of which direction you lean, it wasn’t pretty.

Having lived and led in a post-Christian culture for decades now (Canada), my experience is that people who show up at a church in a post-Christian culture (which America is quickly becoming) aren’t looking for my political views or ideological bent—they’re looking for God.

My hope is that Christians look, live and sound much more like Jesus than the political candidate of their choice.

My hope is that Christians look, live and sound much more like Jesus than the political candidate of their choice.

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The last vestiges of Christendom may be slipping away in America. And that’s not fatal to the church. Not in the least.

The church was the church long before Constantine and has often been at its best when the culture is indifferent or hostile to it.

It allows love, compassion, generosity, mercy, self-discipline, and self-sacrifice that characterize authentic Christianity to shine.

And, contrary to what many believe, that is in abundant supply in many—if not most—churches.

The collapse of Christian culture should bring out the best in us, not the worst.

What many church leaders are about to face is this truth: Unchurched people aren’t looking for Christendom. They’re looking for Christ.

I pray they find him in our churches.

Unchurched people aren’t looking for Christendom. They’re looking for Christ.

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What pivots do you need to make to flourish in 2021? Some Help.

As hard as it might be, what if 2021 could be a year of real growth for you and your church?

You know that in 2020, some organizations grew while others struggled. I’d love to help your church thrive in 2021.

I know, that sounds crazy (especially after a post like this), but like most things, it’s crazy until it’s not.

I believe 2021 can be a great year for you and your team, and I’d love to help you make it happen.

That’s why I created the 2021 Church Leader Toolkit.

Inside, I cover:

How To Produce Content That Actually Gets Read & Watched
5 Keys To Better Digital Preaching
7 Strategies To Deepen Digital Engagement
How To Keep You And Your Team Out Of Burnout
3 Key Pivots For Every Organization In 2021

The toolkit is free.

You can get access and share the kit with your team here!

What Do You See?

This is a highly complicated subject that 1700 words can’t do justice to.

But clearly something is shifting.

What do you see shifting, and how are you responding? Scroll down and leave a comment!

The post New Exodus? 4 Reasons So Many People (Including Christians) Have Suddenly Left the Church appeared first on CareyNieuwhof.com.

Source: New Exodus? 4 Reasons So Many People (Including Christians) Have Suddenly Left the Church

The post New Exodus? 4 Reasons So Many People (Including Christians) Have Suddenly Left the Church appeared first on Passion for Planting.