by Patrick Bradley: Your Launch Sunday attendance will be inflated by grand opening well-wishers. That can be good and bad at the same time. Here are some ideas to maximize the good and minimize the bad.

Many churches experience a spike in attendance at their inaugural public worship gathering. Which can be exciting! But then the following Sunday, attendance goes down. Way down. It’s pretty typical to see attendance drop by a quarter to a third the very next week.

Some real-world math here: if there were 150 at Launch, it shouldn’t shock you that there’s only 100 the next week. Or if you have 350 on the first Sunday to have 235 the next.

What in the world is going on?

There are several factors that lead to an attendance spike at a church’s grand opening:

Well-wishers come to celebrate
A marketing push brings higher than usual numbers of new families from your community
All of your regulars come on a single, historic Sunday

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Source: 3 Ways to Help Your Grand Opening Well-Wishers Help You

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by Patrick Bradley: Measuring a few important things on a church metrics scorecard will help you in a few important ways. Not the least of which is keeping you from making myth-based decisions.

Years ago on a plane ride, I watched a documentary about the invention of the M16 rifle. I thought it was a completely random time-filler, but the lesson keeps coming back to me:

The Legend of the American Marksman

The documentary recounted the place of the marksman in our cultural psyche. Our national stories and heroes include the likes of Daniel Boone, Davy Crockett and Alvin York, the WWI marksman that captured 132 German soldiers almost single handed.

Through WWII and the Korean Conflict, our standard issue rifles were the high-powered M1 Garand. It was basically designed for distance marksmanship.

But then someone during the Kennedy era was tasked with compiling and analyzing the data from all of the army’s field reports and records. Turns out, there was almost no data confirming the M1’s long-distance effectiveness. The research only confirmed its being used at shorter ranges.

The army’s initial response was, “Our M1s are the only rifle worth using.” They were in love with the idea of the American marksman, but the data showed that the real need was for something that fired faster and was effective at closer ranges. Enter the M16, which was very quickly adopted across our military.

Willow Creek’s Reveal Study

This was essentially the bottom line of the brave research Willow Creek did all those years ago. So much of the Church in the US was operating on the assumption, “Active church members = maturing disciples.” So we grew ministries and filled our church calendars with activities to keep everyone engaged. With the best of intentions.

But the study revealed little to no correlation between staying busy at church and personal spiritual growth.

What I Learned about Myth-Based Decisions

Here are some takeaways:

Decisions of this kind are based on myths, not lies – there are good ideas and even incomplete data involved (the M1s worked, but not nearly as well as the M16)
Designing a solution for a problem that doesn’t really exist is a very real possibility
It’s easy as a visionary or idealistic leader to mentally negate data that confronts your particular myth – especially if the current solution is your brainchild
When you’re piloting a new idea or initiative, there may not be any data immediately – all the more important to measure as you go so you can make pivots and keep getting better

How is your church doing at making disciples? Are the processes, programs and staff you’re pouring resources into actually making a difference?

As you decide what to include in your church metrics, consider both micro and macro health measurements. And please measure more than just attendance and offerings. Measuring what’s important will let you make informed decisions and avoid holding out for a good idea that isn’t working well.

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Source: Church Metrics will Help You Avoid this Mistake

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by Patrick Bradley: It is generally acknowledged that there are 2 best windows for a church plant launch in the US: fall (Sep/Oct) and spring (Feb/Mar). How will you decide?

The windows work kind of like a space shuttle landing – in its day, it couldn’t come down just anywhere. It had to wait for the window to land at one of the 4 sites in the US. If it missed the intended window, it had to recalculate for the next landing site.

If you’re making plans to be a church planter or church-planting church, it would be smart to make an informed decision. There are pros and cons to each. You’ll need to:

Understand Cultural Rhythms

Our 2 church plant launch windows have come about mostly from the rhythms of our lives here in the US.

There are seasons when church participation goes up. I see it as a combination of the school calendar and the holiday calendar. Churches will tell you that they see waves of visitors and re/dedication come at:

Back to school time (September-ish)
At and following the holidays (January-ish)
Easter time (March-ish)

There are also several really busy seasons for us here in the US:

May (end of school year)
Summer (outdoor activities and vacations)
Nov/Dec (holiday travel, end of semester, end of calendar year)

May & December can be absolutely insane for families with kids: schools are cramming in music presentations, award ceremonies, throwing parties and wrapping up sports leagues. Now layer on office parties and church events in December and graduation parties in late May. There’s no way my family could pack in another event in either of those months.

You have to take those bad windows into account because they flank the good windows. That’s important on the front end because to hit critical mass at a good window, you have to build steam during a tough season:

Recruit & build your team during the summer for a fall church plant launch
Or try to gain momentum in the craziness of Nov/Dec for a spring launch

But they’re also important to understand because the launch event itself isn’t the goal. Becoming a healthy, thriving community of believers is. So you have to plan for the tough season that follows your launch:

Shortly following a fall launch, you hit the Nov/Dec holiday window
Not long after a spring church plant launch, the busyness of May the absenteeism of the summer hits you

Regional Events

These are the larger waves in the US context as a whole. But it’s important to investigate the nuances of your local context.

Are you planting where everyone drives a pickup with a gun rack? You’d better have hunting season on your radar.

As another example, I’ve supported planters in San Francisco where the summers are cold and foggy. The warmest months are usually April and October. As a result, there are countless parades, festivals and celebrations in that city in October, which make it a natural month for a grand opening celebration.

Expect Regional Weather

More than just the cultural rhythms that mirror weather patterns, the threat of inclement weather is a real thing. Imagine having to cancel your inaugural service because of weather! It’s happened.

If you live in states where there is a serious chance of snow or ice storms in Feb/Mar, a fall launch may be a better bet.

But if you’re planting near the Gulf Coast or Eastern Seaboard, Sep/Oct is still hurricane season. And how hot is it still in Arizona in September?

Sync with Organizational Timing

One last thing you may very well need to consider is the plans and expectations of your church planting body. In some cases, they’ve recruited you with an expressed time line in mind. If their timeline doesn’t match what you’re thinking, have an open conversation as soon as that comes to light. Don’t wait.

Get Wise Counsel

Finally, be sure to pray about it and get advice from:

Your church planting network, tribe or church
Your Management Team or oversight body
Your church planting coach
Other church planters in your immediate context

Make a prayerful & informed choice for your church plant launch so that you don’t get halfway in and be forced to decide whether to postpone or not.

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Source: How to Decide Between a Fall and Spring Church Plant Launch

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by Patrick Bradley: Church planting never goes quite like you think it’s going to. Some things will go better than you’ve imagined. Other things will be harder. A few planters will have to decide whether to push back church launch.

What I mean by pushing back launch is punting until the next launch season, like from fall to spring or vice versa. Pushing back a few weeks generally has a much lesser impact.

Pushing back launch can risk finances and momentum.

What’s at Stake

Finances

Ministry isn’t about money, but it takes money (even in Jesus’ day). One of the assumptions of the Launch Large or High-Impact launch approach is that local offerings don’t start until the launch of regular worship gatherings. If that is your reality, then pushing back your launch delays the start of a significant source of income.

Have you raised enough money to cover 4 to 6 months’ extra expenses? You probably wouldn’t be renting a facility during that time, one of a church plant’s 2 biggest expenses. But six months of paying for everything else is a financial hit not every pre-launch church plant can absorb.

But that’s based on an assumption. If the team you do have already gives generously, the financial blow is softened. One planter I supported had giving from his Launch Team that exceeded their monthly expenses (while there wasn’t a rent payment). When he punted 4 months or so, his financial situation didn’t worsen. How willing are you to talk about generosity with your team?

Sometimes planters have to struggle with whether to push back church launch because early fundraising efforts didn’t go well, or they didn’t take advantage of the extra time they had before there was a Launch Team. So some planters push back launch to buy time to re/hit the fundraising trail.

One thing you’ll have to consider, especially with high-capacity donors, is how to explain the delayed launch. There’s a way to explain it that positions it as strategic or necessary. And there’s a way that may cause donors to hesitate.

Momentum

The most common situation I’ve seen that makes planters wrestle with whether to push back church launch is the size of the gathering Launch Team. Kicking off weekly worship gatherings with fewer than 40 adults committed to getting the new church off the ground is like having a preemie baby. Many survive low birth weight, but no parent hopes for that kind of start to life.

So some planters push back the launch to buy time to build a bigger team. There’s a way to break that news to your existing team that creates excitement and rallies the troops. And there’s a way to do it that’s more like popping a balloon. Managing the relational momentum of the team is everything, really.

Facility

One thing you’ll need to consider is what a delay in the timetable does to the availability and/or cost of your worship gathering facility. I’ve you’ve already signed a rental agreement, you may have to start paying on it regardless.

And BTW, if you’re building out a 24/7 leased facility, you’re going to have to push back your launch by several weeks. Count on it. Construction never comes in on time or under budget. But again, that’s not the kind of push we’re talking about here. Just a heads up.

Your Capacity

The hard reality is that by the time a planter is deciding to push back church launch, there are already so many plates spinning that it’s incredibly difficult to find extra bandwidth to double down on whatever it is that’s forcing the decision. It would be tragic to push back launch by 4 to 6 months to build a bigger team and end up with basically the same size of team you would’ve had if you didn’t push.

There are lots of factors to consider when you have to decide whether or not to push back church launch. If you’re having to make that decision, my heart goes out to you. Pray. Seek wisdom from your Management Team and Coach. And follow the Spirit’s lead.

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Source: When to Push Back Church Launch

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By Patrick Bradley: What is the end game for a church plant Management Team? When does a Management Team win?

Understanding the Management Team win is important in recruiting team members and in keeping everyone shooting at the same target. You’ll have a Management Team for several years and even the best teams can experience mission drift.

A Management Team wins when they:

Work Themselves Out of a Job

It’s kind of like being a parent and seeing your teenagers off into the real world. The Management Team provides leadership until the new church can make it on its own in these three ways:

Self-Sustaining

If it’s going to be an autonomous congregation, the church should be able to support itself financially before too long. Many times other congregations represented on the Management Team have shared their resources to get the new church started. But no mother church wants a boomerang church living in their basement.

Self-Governing

The planter needs to raise up leadership from within over the course of a couple of years. Slowly the baton should be passed from the Management Team to the local Elders.

Reproducing

Eventually the mother church wants to have granddaughter churches. Studies continue to show a connection between church plants that get involved early in planting another church and their own health and sustainability.

Head Problems Off at the Pass

In the mean time, the Management Team wins when they have access to enough information to know what’s going on. Their leadership experience and wisdom will help you see opportunities and problems on the horizon and maneuver accordingly. Probably that information takes the form of ministry reports and/or church metrics. If you keep your Management Team in the dark, they’ll won’t be able to help with your real issues.

Your Management Team is an invaluable resource during the first years of your new church. Set them up to win and you’ll win, too!

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Source: When Does a Management Team Win?

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